FACTBOX: Fed staff forecasts from FOMC minutes

(Reuters) - The following are the Federal Reserve's staff forecasts as contained in the minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meetings:

MARCH 20-21 FOMC: Minutes released on April 11

"In its forecast prepared for this meeting, the staff marked down the projected increase in real GDP in the first quarter in response to weaker-than-expected incoming data on business equipment spending and federal defense purchases. The recent increase in oil prices and decline in equity prices, along with increased strains in the subprime mortgage sector, were expected to exert some drag on real activity over the remainder of the year. Even so, real GDP growth was expected to pick up to a rate a little below that of the economy's long-run potential for the remainder of 2007, as declines in residential construction activity lessened, and to remain at a similar rate in 2008. The increase in energy prices over the intermeeting period led the staff to revise up its forecast for headline PCE inflation during the first half of this year, but the staff continued to expect that core PCE inflation would edge down over the remainder of this year and next."

JAN. 30-31 FOMC: Minutes released on February 21

"In its forecast prepared ahead of the meeting, the staff had revised up its estimate of growth of aggregate economic activity in the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, real GDP in the second half of last year was still projected to have increased at a pace that was a bit below the economy's long-run potential, primarily because of the ongoing adjustment in the housing sector and the lower level of motor vehicle production. Looking ahead, the staff expected the rate of increase in real GDP to be little changed in 2007 relative to the projected pace for the second half of 2006. However, with the contraction in housing activity expected to abate this year, the pace of economic growth was anticipated to edge back up to a level that was close to the staff's estimate of potential output growth by the end of 2007 and to remain in that same range throughout 2008. In light of developments in futures markets, the paths of both energy and import prices were projected to be lower than was previously thought. Against this background and with the rate of increase of shelter prices slowing down, the staff expected core inflation to edge down in 2007 and 2008. The advance data on the national income and product accounts for the fourth quarter that were released on the morning of the second day of the FOMC meeting showed stronger-than-expected net exports and a larger-than-anticipated accumulation of inventories. The staff interpreted this information as suggesting some upward revision to its estimate of output growth in the fourth quarter and perhaps a slight downward revision to its forecast for the current quarter."

DEC. 12 FOMC: Minutes released on January 3, 2007

"The staff forecast prepared for this meeting indicated that growth in economic activity had slowed to a pace below that of the economy's long-run potential in the second half of 2006, partly as a result of the ongoing adjustment of the housing sector. The rate of increase in real GDP was expected to pick up gradually as the drag from the contraction in residential construction diminished, returning towards the end of 2007 to a rate close to the staff's estimate of potential output growth. Core inflation was anticipated to edge down in 2007 and 2008 in response to a waning of the effects of higher energy and import prices, a step-down in rent increases, and the emergence of a small amount of slack in the economy."

OCT. 24-25 FOMC: Minutes released on November 15

"The staff forecast prepared for this meeting indicated that growth of real GDP had slowed further in the third quarter, reflecting both a significant drag from the continuing contraction in residential construction and a steep decline in motor vehicle assemblies. Looking ahead, a gradual reduction in the restraining effects of the contraction in residential investment and further solid gains in consumer and business spending were expected to lead to a pickup in GDP growth through 2007 and into 2008. These gains in spending were likely to be supported by past declines in energy prices and continued gains in payroll employment and labor income. Real GDP was expected to rise at a somewhat slower rate over the next two years than in 2006 in part as a result of less impetus from household wealth, interest rates, and fiscal policy. The projected increase in real output over the next year or so was a little below the staff's estimate of potential output growth, leading to a lessening in pressures on resource utilization. Core inflation was anticipated to edge down in 2007 and 2008 relative to the second half of this year because of the diminishing impetus from the prices of energy and other commodities and because of the modest easing in resource utilization."