Polls: Jindal leads Louisiana governor's race

NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) - Republican Bobby Jindal holds a commanding lead in the Louisiana governor's race heading into the October 20 primary, close to the 50 percent majority needed for an outright win, two polls showed.

Turnout among black voters, who traditionally vote Democratic and make up about 30 percent of the electorate, will likely determine if Jindal, a second-term congressman, is elected outright or forced into a runoff, said Louisiana political analyst Elliott Stonecipher.

"Either African-American turnout has been terribly depleted by the storms or African-American turnout is actually going to hold up, in which case he's in a runoff."

In Louisiana's open primary system, candidates from all parties compete in the primary. If no candidate receives more than half the votes, the top two contenders meet in a runoff.

Both polls released this week showed about one in four voters undecided or keeping their choices to themselves. Tens of thousands of voters are still displaced two years after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated the state.

Jindal, 36, a conservative Republican, hopes to replace Democrat Kathleen Blanco, who is not seeking a second term. If elected, Jindal would be the first U.S. governor descended from Indian immigrants.

Blanco narrowly defeated Jindal in a runoff four years ago, but her approval ratings plummeted after Katrina and Rita in 2005.

Polls conducted this month by Southeastern Louisiana University and New Orleans television station WWL-TV showed Jindal at or just short of the 50 percent he needs to avoid a November 17 runoff.

The WWL-TV poll of 500 registered voters released on Thursday showed Jindal leading with 50 percent and the nearest of three top rivals, Democratic state Sen. Walter Boasso, at 9 percent, while 22 percent of voters declined to indicate a choice. It had a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

In the Southeastern poll of 641 registered voters released earlier this week, Jindal led with 46.2 percent, while Boasso was at 10.1 percent and 28.9 percent of respondents were undecided or refused to say for whom they would vote. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.