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INSTANT VIEW-6: Fed's Bernanke: economy resilient but strains
NEW YORK |
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Thursday the U.S. economy has been resilient in the face of credit market strains but it faces risks on both the growth and inflation fronts.
"Financial market volatility and strains have persisted," Bernanke said in testimony prepared for delivery to the congressional Joint Economic Committee. "In addition, further sharp increases in crude oil prices have put renewed upward pressure on inflation and may impose further restraint on economic activity."
COMMENTS:
LINCOLN ANDERSON, MANAGING DIRECTOR AND CHIEF INVESTMENT
OFFICER AT LPL FINANCIAL SERVICES IN BOSTON:
"I think Bernanke's pretty much a straight shooter. It's a pretty balanced assessment. I think there's a good deal of concern. and it is fairly indiscriminate. I'm not seeing a big spreading of this problem thought the wider market. Looking through his testimony, it is pretty balanced. I think its 50-50 that they cut again."
AXEL MERK, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, MERK HARD CURRENCY FUND, PALO
ALTO, CALIFORNIA:
"The Fed is trying to be relevant. They know they're in a corner because there are still lingering inflation pressures but the economy is weakening, so they want to get their 25 basis point cut across. They are actually trying to prepare the market for a cut at the next meeting. It's impact on the dollar? Pretty hopeless."
DEAN JUNKANS, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, WELLS FARGO PRIVATE
BANK, MINNEAPOLIS:
"It's almost like he's backpedaling a little bit from the last Fed statement, saying maybe growth won't be that strong after all. The market's are pricing in a two-thirds chance of a December rate cut. He seems to have opened up the window to that possibility with his comments."
BRIAN TAYLOR, HEAD OF FOREX, HEAD OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE
TRADING, MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS BANK, BUFFALO, NEW YORK
"I think that this is this the first time that Bernanke has said that the housing slowdown will begin to affect the U.S. economy; previously that had only been voiced in Fed statements."
"It seems as though the Fed is more concerned abut the credit crunch than on inflation."
"The market is seeing more rate cuts and that has spurred dollar selling across the board."
"On the dollar index, I think we may have a run to the 75 level later today ... below the earlier (lifetime) low."
"Fed funds futures are up, that doesn't bode well with the dollar."
PIERRE ELLIS, SENIOR ECONOMIST, DECISION ECONOMICS, NEW
YORK:
"It's interesting that Bernanke talks about the October FOMC decision and the judgment that risks were balanced in the past tense, and the paragraph where he talks about the days since the FOMC meeting has quite a negative tone, particularly on the performance of mortgage-related assets and the fact that that has intensified investors' concerns."
"And he also talks about the sharp increases in crude oil prices. This is about as far as the Fed Chairman would ever go in signaling new concerns so far in advance of the next monetary policy meeting."
DUSTIN REID, SENIOR CURRENCY STRATEGIST, ABN AMRO,
CHICAGO:
"My initial take, it's a bit dovish, specifically on the growth side. In particular, it's his comment that the FOMC expects growth to slow noticeably in the fourth quarter and expects sluggish growth in early 2008."
"It's perhaps a warning that the Fed may be looking to downgrade its growth outlook. On the margin, that will have the market pricing in bit higher chance of Fed cut, if not for December then in first quarter of 2008."
"The market is focusing on interest rate differentials, so we're seeing the dollar offered. From a trading perspective, euro-dollar could still touch 1.50 this year. But I think it's a bit premature to talk about significant levels above there, as we'll have to break that barrier first."
CHRISTOPHER LOW, CHIEF ECONOMIST, FTN FINANCIAL, NEW YORK
"There's nothing new. Their eyes are open. They are pulled in two directions. They are worried about the economy. They are worried about inflation.
Bernanke is in a box and it's is getting smaller. They are behind the curve. Look at where Treasury yields are."
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