Syria sees isolation fading after Annapolis

DAMASCUS (Reuters) - Syria, no longer worried it might be the next U.S. target for regime change after Iraq, is emerging from Western and Arab ostracism without sacrificing its anti-Israeli alliance with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.

No one expects a dramatic warming of U.S.-Syrian ties, but Syrian analysts and Western diplomats spoke of modest prospects for constructive engagement after years of mutual mistrust.

"Nothing much has changed yet, but there is more potential than before," said one diplomat, citing last month's U.S.-hosted Israeli-Palestinian talks in Annapolis, which Syria attended.

Just two years ago, Damascus was under fierce U.S. pressure over its role in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestinian territories.

The assassination of Lebanese ex-premier Rafik al-Hariri alienated any remaining Arab or European support for Syria, even though it said it had no hand in the February 2005 killing, and it was forced to end its 29-year military presence in Lebanon.

Since then, U.S. difficulties in Iraq, rising Iranian influence and Israel's failure to crush Hezbollah guerrillas in last year's Lebanon war have helped to restore Syrian fortunes.

"Syria is rising now and the United States is collapsing in the region," said Imad al-Shuaibi, a Syrian political analyst familiar with government thinking. He dismissed the idea that a U.N. tribunal to try Hariri's killers posed any threat to Syria.

ISOLATION CRUMBLING

Signs abound that Damascus's isolation is eroding.

Washington altered its agenda for the November 27 Annapolis talks to secure Syria's presence. Russia plans a follow-up meeting next year to try to revive Syrian-Israeli peacemaking.

French, Italian and Turkish leaders have called President Bashar al-Assad in recent weeks to seek his help in resolving the political crisis over Lebanon's presidential election.

Syria is now looking to improve ties with Saudi Arabia and other U.S.-backed Arab countries before an Arab League summit in Damascus in March, without dropping Iran and its other allies.

"After Annapolis, we hope we are entering a new phase," a European diplomat said. "Syria's overall behavior on Annapolis and Lebanon shows it is trying to reintegrate itself in the Arab family and play things in a way that would benefit the region."

Syria, which demands the return of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights as part of a comprehensive Middle East peace, remains deeply skeptical of U.S. and Israeli intentions.

"Is this a disposable, short-term operation to create more dust than effect?" asked Syrian analyst Samir Altaqi, who heads the Orient Center for Studies in Damascus. "The Syrians won't be bluffed into a public relations exercise."

Damascus would not make gestures to please its U.S. and Israeli foes, who want Syria to ditch Iran and its other allies before any peace talks have achieved results, Altaqi said.

"This is nonsense. Nobody lays down his cards before the end of the game -- you keep them in case things change," he added.

The fragile U.S.-Syrian opening at Annapolis seems already to have eased their proxy struggle in Lebanon, where U.S.-backed factions have accepted army chief Michel Suleiman, who is well-regarded in Damascus, as a compromise choice for president.

Syria may have cooperated with French-led mediation efforts, but International Crisis Group analyst Peter Harling said the fears of Lebanon's anti-Syrian camp that its interests had been sold out as part of a U.S. deal with Damascus were exaggerated.

"There's such a level of distrust between the two countries that it would take a period of normalization, signs of goodwill on both sides, before they get close to dealing," he said.

CONVERGING INTERESTS

Iraq is less of a U.S.-Syrian flashpoint than it was for several years after the 2003 invasion when Washington relentlessly accused Damascus of allowing foreign Islamist militants to cross its territory to combat U.S. forces there.

U.S. generals now say the flow of fighters has decreased. Syria's secular leaders have come to share an interest with Washington in seeing Sunni tribesmen defeat al Qaeda in Iraq.

"Al Qaeda is very dangerous for Syrian interests. If they win in Iraq, their next confrontation will be Syria," Syrian analyst Shuaibi said. "More than 100 of them are in jail here."

Harling said Syria's threat perception in Iraq had changed.

"The danger was no longer 150,000 U.S. troops pursuing a hostile agenda," he argued. "It was civil war, the risk of Iraq's breakup, an independent Kurdistan, refugees flowing into Syria, and militants returning across the border."

Such factors played into Syria's rapprochement this year with the Iraqi government, once seen as tainted by its U.S. links and resented for accusing Damascus of aiding Sunni rebels.

These better ties with Baghdad go down well in Washington and could further reduce U.S.-Syrian tensions. Such a detente would have repercussions across the region. But any notion that Syria can easily be "flipped" away from Tehran is premature.

"No one should imagine that Syria will get rid of its relationship with Iran and Hezbollah," Shuaibi declared.

(Editing by Matthew Tostevin)