Revised Estimates Show Higher Iowa Youth Turnout than Expected

Iowa Youth Turnout Rate More than Triples

65,000 Iowans under the Age of Thirty Participate in the Caucuses

Youth Voter Experts Available for Interviews, Contact David Roscow
at 703-276-2772 x21
WASHINGTON--(Business Wire)--Thirteen percent of eligible Iowans under the age of 30
participated in last night's Iowa caucuses, according to preliminary
analysis by CIRCLE (The Center for Information & Research on Civic
Learning & Engagement). The youth turnout rate rose to 13 percent in
2008 from 4 percent in 2004 and 3 percent in 2000. Young voters
expanded as a proportion of all caucus-goers, and the total number of
Iowans who caucused grew, producing the three-fold increase in youth
participation. Youth supported both winners--Senator Barack Obama (D)
and Governor Mike Huckabee (R)--by the largest margins of any age
group.

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*T
Table 1 - Iowa Presidential Caucus Participation
17-to-29-Year-Old Citizens
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Youth Turnout Rate Overall Number of Youth
Caucus Year Turnout of Age 30 Turnout Youth Who as Share of
Rate and Over Rate Caucused Caucus-goers
2008 13% 17% 16% 65,230 18%
2004 4% 8% 5% 20,740 17%
2000 3% 9% 8% 14,940 9%
*T

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Combines the Democratic and Republican caucuses. For separate results
by party, see Table II.

Source: The share of caucus goers is obtained from the IA entrance
polls conducted by Edison/Mitofsky (2008 & 2004) and Voter News
Services (2000). The numbers of votes cast are obtained from the
Associated Press at 2 am on January 4. Estimated voter turnout is
obtained by taking the estimated number of votes cast and dividing it
by the estimated population of 17-to-29-year-old citizens and
citizens over the age of 30 from the Current Population Survey.
*T

Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because
turnout is affected by the date of the caucuses and by the nature of
the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are
different in every cycle. For example, there was no Republican caucus
in Iowa 2004, when President Bush sought reelection. The following
table provides estimates of youth participation in Iowa caucuses by
party and year.

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Table 2 - Iowa Presidential Caucus Participation
By Party
17-to-29-Year-Old Citizens
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Political Party Caucus Year Number of Share of
Caucus-goers Caucus-goers
Democratic 2008 52,580 22%
2004 20,740 17%
Republican 2008 12,650 11%
2004 N/A N/A
*T

The turnout rate has historically been low in Iowa caucuses, but
the youth turnout rate was much higher tonight than in recent years.
This result continues a trend observed in other elections since 2000.
In the 2006 congressional elections, the voter turnout rate among
18-to-29-year-olds increased by three percentage points compared to
the previous congressional election of 2002. And in the 2004
presidential election, the national youth voter turnout rate rose 9
percentage points compared to 2000, reaching 49 percent. In 2004,
under-30-year olds were registered to vote at the highest rate in 30
years.

"Younger Americans are doing their part, registering to vote,
paying more attention to issues and politics, and now turning out for
the Iowa caucuses," said CIRCLE Director Peter Levine. "Now it is up
to political leaders to reach out to younger Americans and run
campaigns that address their issues and concerns."

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Definitions

Youth: For the purpose of the Iowa caucuses, we define "youth" as
citizens who will be between the ages of 18 and 29 on Election Day,
2008.
Number of youth who caucused: An estimate of how many youth
participated.
Youth share caucus-goers: An estimate of the number of young people
who participated in the caucuses as a percentage of the number of all
people who participated in the caucuses.
Youth turnout rate: An estimate of the number of young people who
participated in the caucuses as a percentage of the total number of
young people who were eligible to participate in either caucus.

The youth turnout rate is the best indicator of how young Americans
are engaging in the political process. The other statistics--the
sheer number of youth participants and the youth share of the
electorate--can change because of factors unrelated to youth
engagement.
*T

CIRCLE (The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning
and Engagement) promotes research on the civic and political
engagement of Americans between the ages of 15 and 25. Since 2001,
CIRCLE has conducted, collected, and funded research on the civic and
political participation of young Americans. CIRCLE is based in the
University of Maryland's School of Public Policy and is funded by The
Pew Charitable Trusts, Carnegie Corporation of New York and several
other foundations.

CIRCLE
David Roscow, 703-276-2772 x21

Copyright Business Wire 2008