The Conference Board(R) France Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

France Leading Economic Indicators and Related Composite Indexes for November
2007

NEW YORK, Jan. 15 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board reports today that
the leading index for France remained unchanged and the coincident index
remained unchanged in November.
-- The leading index remained unchanged in November with industrial new
orders and new unemployment insurance claims (inverted) being the
strongest positive contributors, and building permits and stock prices
being the largest negative contributors to the index. The six-month
growth rate of the leading index stands at 1.2 percent during the six-
month span through November (about a 2.5 percent annual growth rate),
well above the slightly negative growth rate at the beginning of 2007.
In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have been
slightly stronger than weaknesses throughout the last six months.
-- The coincident index remained unchanged in November, with employment
and wages and salaries being the only positive contributors, offsetting
a large negative contribution from industrial production. The six-month
growth rate of the coincident index stands at 0.6 percent
(approximately a 1.2 percent annual rate of growth) during the six-
month span through November. The coincident index remains relatively
strong as its strengths among its components have been very widespread
throughout the last six months.
-- The leading index grew slowly, but steadily, throughout 2007, following
an essentially flat period in the second half of 2006. At the same
time, real GDP growth fluctuated slightly around an average annual rate
of 2.0 percent, and picked up to a 3.2 percent annual rate in the third
quarter of 2007. The recent behavior of the leading and coincident
indexes so far suggests that moderate economic growth is likely to
continue in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components of the leading index
increased in November. The positive contributors to the index- in order from
the largest positive contributor to the smallest- are industrial new orders,
the inverted new unemployment claims, the ratio of the deflator of
manufacturing value added to unit labor cost for manufacturing*, and the yield
spread. The negative contributors to the index- beginning with the largest
negative contributor- are building permits (residential), and the stock price
index. Production expectations remained unchanged in November.
Remaining unchanged in November, the leading index stands at 131.5
(1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in
October and increased 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month span
through November, the leading index increased 1.2 percent, and four of the
seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1
percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components of the coincident index
increased in November. The positive contributors to the index were
employment*, and wage and salaries*. Industrial production declined in
November. Personal consumption remained unchanged in November.
Remaining unchanged in November, the coincident index stands at 122.8
(1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in
October and was unchanged in September. During the six-month period through
November, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, with four of the four
series making a positive contribution (diffusion index, six-month span equals
100.0 percent).
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Summary Table of Composite Indexes
2007 6-month
Sep Oct Nov May to Nov

Leading index 131.0 p 131.5 p 131.5 p
Percent Change 0.2 p 0.4 p 0.0 p 1.2 p
Diffusion 71.4 71.4 50.0 57.1

Coincident Index 122.6 p 122.8 p 122.8 p
Percent Change 0.0 p 0.2 p 0.0 p 0.6 p
Diffusion 37.5 75.0 50.0 100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 1990
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, February 19, 2008 at 9:30 A.M. ET
(3:30 P.M. CET)
SOURCE The Conference Board

Professional Contacts at The Conference Board, Indicator Program,
+1-212-339-0330, Frank Tortorici, or +1-212-339-0231, or Carol Courter,
+1-212-339-0232, indicators@conference-board.org