Sex scandal won't sway White House race: experts

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The sex scandal that may end New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer's political career is unlikely to have a significant impact on the U.S. presidential race, analysts said on Tuesday.

Spitzer, a Democrat, has backed fellow New Yorker Hillary Clinton's bid for the presidency, but his troubles are not likely to hurt Clinton as she battles rival Barack Obama for the party's nomination for the November election, they said.

Spitzer was linked to a federal probe of a prostitution ring on Monday, and Republicans in the state legislature said they may push for impeachment if he does not resign.

The scandal could remind voters of Clinton's trials as first lady 10 years ago, when her husband, President Bill Clinton, was nearly forced from office for lying about an affair with intern Monica Lewinsky.

But that is unlikely to sway voters one way or another, said Southern Methodist University professor Cal Jillson.

"I'm not sure it brings a great deal of sympathy because right now the Clinton campaign is not running on sympathy, it's running on toughness," Jillson said.

Spitzer endorsed Clinton in May, but he has not been especially visible on the campaign trail. His plan to allow illegal immigrants to get drivers' licenses created discomfort for Clinton, who equivocated in a debate last fall before saying she opposed it. Spitzer later dropped the proposal.

As of Tuesday, Spitzer was not listed as a Clinton supporter on the campaign Web site.

CANDIDATES DECLINE TO COMMENT

Both Clinton, a New York senator who would be the first woman U.S. president, and Obama, an Illinois senator who would be the first black president, have declined to comment so far.

"I think it's appropriate just to wish his family well and we'll wait and see how things develop," Clinton said in Scranton, Pennsylvania, on Monday.

The expected Republican nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, has also avoided comment so far.

If he steps down, Spitzer will no longer serve as a "superdelegate" to the Democratic Party's nominating convention in August, according to the Democratic National Committee.

That means Clinton will lose a high-profile backer at a time when she is trying to win other superdelegates' support to make up for a shortfall among the pledged delegates won in state-by-state nominating contests so far.

New York Lt. Gov. David Paterson, who would replace Spitzer if he steps down, is also a superdelegate pledged to Clinton.

The scandal could pull attention from the Democratic presidential race, said Julian Zelizer, professor of politics and history at Princeton University.

"Now they're talking about a sex scandal, because this is a dramatic one with a powerful, dramatic figure that is going to be in the news for a while," Zelizer said.

The Republican Congressional Campaign Committee called on Democrats to return donations from Spitzer, and several Republican lawmakers called on Spitzer to resign.

Democrats pointed out that Republicans including Idaho Sen. Larry Craig and Louisiana Sen. David Vitter have not resigned after being involved in sex scandals.

"People shouldn't be too quick to point the finger," Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell said on CNN.

Jillson said the scandal is unlikely to sway the opinion of voters who largely disapprove of Republican President George W. Bush's handling of the Iraq war and the economy, or counteract the impact of similar sex scandals involving Republicans.

"The Republican brand is so thoroughly diminished at this point," he said. "I can't imagine that Spitzer's problems would sufficiently tarnish the Democratic brand that it will bring them to parity."

(Additional reporting by Deborah Charles; editing by Mohammad Zargham)