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FACTBOX: Clinton, Obama face showdown in Pennsylvania

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Wed Apr 2, 2008 1:44pm EDT

(Reuters) - Pennsylvania holds a Democratic primary contest on April 22 that could determine whether the party's presidential nomination goes to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Following are facts about the state.

* Pennsylvania has 7.2 million registered voters. Nearly 4 million, or 48 percent, are Democrats.

* The state has voted for a Democrat in presidential general elections since it backed Republican George H.W. Bush over Democrat Michael Dukakis in 1988.

* Clinton had been leading Obama by double-digit margins, but the state race has tightened. A March 24-31 Quinnipiac University poll put Clinton 9 percentage points ahead of Obama, while a Rasmussen survey showed the Clinton lead at 5 points.

* Clinton, who lags Obama in national polls, must win Pennsylvania by a significant margin to remain in the race.

"If she can't win Pennsylvania, she's done. Every argument she's had is gone," said Terry Madonna of Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster. "If Obama can cut her lead to low single-digits, he could declare victory in a state where she was expected to do better than Ohio, which she won by 10 points."

* With the electoral battle along racial, class and geographical lines, the key to victory may lie with moderate suburban Democrats in areas where newer high-tech and biomedical industries have replaced the state's traditional steel and coal economy.

Obama is expected to win big in the city of Philadelphia, which has a large black population; Clinton is likely to do best in the industrial centers of the Northeast and West, home to large numbers of white, blue-collar voters and the elderly.

* Pittsburgh and the densely populated Philadelphia suburbs could help Obama with a large number of Democrats who are white, educated, affluent and liberal.

(Reporting by David Morgan; editing by David Wiessler)

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