Over the Forecast Period, to 2012, It Is Anticipated That Non-Life Insurance Premiums...

Over the Forecast Period, to 2012, It Is Anticipated That Non-Life Insurance Premiums in China Will Grow by 11% Annually in Local Currency Terms and by 16% in US Dollar Terms

DUBLIN, Ireland--(Business Wire)--
Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c88308) has announced the
addition of China Insurance Report Q1 2008 to their offering.

The China Insurance Report provides independent forecasts and
competitive intelligence on China's insurance industry.

This report is substantially different from its predecessor. For
virtually all countries considered by BMI, including many for which we
do not regularly produce reports on the insurance sector, 2008 reports
include hard data - derived from official sources - to the end of
2006. They incorporate forecasts as far as 2012. To a much greater
extent than was previously the case, we have incorporated details of
the various lines that comprise the non-life segment. Most
importantly, we have introduced the new Insurance Business Environment
Rating. The IBER combines our assessment of the insurance sector -
which is based predominantly on quantitative data - with BMI's
proprietary Country Risk Rating (CRR). The details are given in the
methodology section at the end of this report.

The result is that it is now much easier to consider the business
environment for the insurance sector in any one country relative to
the business environment for other industries in that country that are
considered by BMI, and the business environment for the insurance
sector in other countries.

China's IBER is 61.7. Relative to other countries in the Asia
Pacific region, it is a moderately attractive insurance market for
foreign insurers. China stands out in the region for the present
absolute size of and likely absolute growth in both annual life and
non-life premiums. The ratings for both the non-life and the life
segments are undermined by their lack of openness to foreign
participants. The other factor that boosts China's IBER is its
relatively high Country Risk Factor. China's continued growth and the
political environment are such that scores for financial and external
stability are high, as is the score for policy continuity over the
long-term. These factors outweigh the major deficiencies in the legal
framework and bureaucracy.

China's IBER is also held back by the very small rate of non-life
penetration, the tax regime, low GDP per capita, and past GDP
volatility. Over the forecast period, to 2012, we anticipate that
non-life premiums will grow by 11% annually in local currency terms
and by 16% in US dollar terms. Life premiums are expected to increase
by 8% annually in local currency terms and by 13% in US dollar terms.
The key drivers of growth in the non-life segment in 2007-2012 are the
anticipated rise in nominal GDP from around US$3,221.56bn in 2007 to
US$7,696.01bn in 2012, and an expected increase in non-life
penetration from 1.00% of GDP to 1.10% over the same period. The key
driver of growth in the life segment is the envisaged rise in total
population from 1,331.36mn to 1,370.22mn in 2012. We predict that life
density will actually decrease during this period from 1.72% to 1.67%.

China still scores quite poorly in terms of its measure of
openness to foreign companies. However, the size of its economy and
likely continued growth make it a popular choice for both life and non
life insurers. The legal framework and bureaucracy are cumbersome, but
some recent regulatory innovations highlight the general trend towards
modernization in this area.

Despite historically low GDP, which served to drag down China's
IBER, real GDP data for Q307 has indicated that China remains on track
to achieve its fastest annual expansion in 14 years. Even though
year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 11.5% y-o-y in Q307 was a slowdown from
Q207's 11.9% expansion, a 12-year high, it will ensure that Chinese
authorities retain their hawkish bias as they try to slow the pace of
growth in the world's fourth largest economy.

Content Outline:

The Sector at a Glance

Table: Overview of China's Insurance Sector

Key Insights on China's Insurance Sector

SWOT Analysis

China Industry SWOT

Latest News

Projections and Forecast

Table: Premiums - Historical Data and Forecasts

Projections and Drivers Of Growth

Table: Growth Drivers

Country Update

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: China - Economic Activity

Political Outlook

Insurance Business Environment Rating

Table: China - Insurance Business Environment Indicators

Table: Asia Pacific Insurance Business Environment Rankings

Regional Context

Table: Non-Life Premiums In A Regional Context, 2007

Table: Life Premiums In A Regional Context, 2007

Table: Comparison Of Major Lines As % Non-Life Premiums, 2006

Analysis Of Competitive Conditions

Country Overview - Non-Life Segment

Table: Presence Of Cross-Border Insurers, Non-Life

Country Overview - Life Segment

Table: Presence Of Cross-Border Insurers, Life

Methodology

Basis Of Projections

Insurance Business Environment Rating

Table: Insurance Business Environment Indicators And Rationale

Table: Weighting Of Indicators

For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c88308.

Research and Markets
Laura Wood, Senior Manager
Fax: +353 1 4100 980
press@researchandmarkets.com

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