Another debt ceiling debacle could sink the economy
Last year's Congressional debt standoff hurt consumer confidence more than the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Betsey Johnson and Justin Wolfers write. This time could be worse. Read more at Counterparties
INSTANT VIEW: Reaction to jobless data
NEW YORK |
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers applying for unemployment benefits rose by 17,000, which was marginally less than expected, while those of workers remaining on jobless benefits were at the highest level in almost four years, a government report showed on Thursday.
KEY POINTS: * Jobless claims climbed to 372,000 in the week ended April 12, the Labor Department said. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting 375,000. * The four-week average of new claims, a more reliable guide to underlying labor market trends because it smoothes out weekly data fluctuation, moderated slightly to 376,000 from a revised 376,750 in the previous week, which was the highest since a big jump in claims after Hurricane Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast in the fall of 2005.
COMMENTS:
ALAN LANCZ, PRESIDENT, ALAN B. LANCZ & ASSOCIATES INC, TOLEDO, OHIO:
"The jobless claims data is not overly negative. It's kind of in-line with what was expected. Obviously the trend is the most worrisome aspect, but that was anticipated. The market is looking at other things right now.
"It's earnings season so that's going to trump everything else as far as news flow unless the economic numbers are really bad. People are looking at the tech earnings and if there will be additional write-offs in the financial sector and more importantly what financial companies say in their conference calls."
KURT KARL, HEAD OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, SWISS RE,
NEW YORK:
"The thing to look at is the moving average. It's been creeping up, now we are looking at 375,000, which isn't a huge number, but its consistent with a slight negative payrolls number each month. My expectation is that this goes above 400,000 in the next three months and stays there. That's more consistent with minus 150,000 and minus 250,000 jobs a month, unfortunately."
MICHELLE MEYER, ECONOMIST, LEHMAN BROTHERS, NEW YORK:
"Claims are edging up and show the labor market is deteriorating. It supports our forecast that the economy has slipped into a recession.
"Continued claims have been edging up at elevated levels. Labor conditions are quite difficult. It's another headwind consumers are facing. Consumer sentiments are very low already and in recession territory."
MATTHEW MOORE, ECONOMIC STRATEGIST, BANC OF AMERICA SECURITIES,
NEW YORK:
"Treasuries seem to be pretty much reacting to equity markets more than the jobless claims numbers. Overnight we got positive earnings from IBM but this morning we are getting some negative earnings from some other large companies including financial institutions."
MARKET REACTION: * BONDS: U.S. Treasury debt prices pared gains. * CURRENCIES: U.S. dollar holds gains on the day. * STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures pare losses slightly.
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