FACTBOX: What next in Zimbabwe's election process?
HARARE |
HARARE (Reuters) - Verification of Zimbabwe's disputed presidential election results has been put off again to Thursday. Here are answers to some questions about the process.
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE VERIFICATION PROCESS?
Officials completed a partial recount from the March 29 presidential and parliamentary elections on Monday.
Recounts from the parliamentary election confirmed that the ruling ZANU-PF party had lost control of parliament for the first time in President Robert Mugabe's 28-year rule.
There are still no results from the presidential vote.
From Thursday, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission has invited candidates, their agents and observers to verify its results. Verification entails comparing the official ZEC figures from every ward with those of political parties.
If there is a query or a candidate disputes certain figures, the ZEC must produce a "V11" form which was signed by members of political parties and ZEC officials at polling stations and confirms a given tally.
Only after all parties agree with the figures from the verification exercise can the ZEC announce a final result.
Utoile Silaigwana, the ZEC's deputy chief elections officer, said on Monday the verification could take up to a week because some of the results were likely to be disputed.
WHY DOES THE DELAY MATTER?
The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) says its candidate Morgan Tsvangirai defeated Mugabe and accuses the veteran leader of using the delay to buy time to rig a second round run-off through fraud and intimidation.
WHAT RESULTS ARE EXPECTED?
Independent and ruling party projections have suggested that Tsvangirai won most votes in the presidential vote, but not the outright majority he would have needed to avoid a second round. The MDC says it won enough votes to avoid a runoff and Tsvangirai should be declared president.
WHO WOULD WIN A RUN-OFF?
On the face of it, Tsvangirai would appear strongly placed to win a fair election with support from third placed presidential candidate Simba Makoni.
But the opposition, human rights groups and Western countries accuse Mugabe of launching a campaign of violence and intimidation to try to swing victory in a second round.
WHAT IF MUGABE STAYS IN POWER?
Zimbabwe's economic crisis is likely to deepen and analysts say there will be few prospects of serious political change.
Western sanctions have failed to weaken Mugabe and he is likely to tighten his grip on power.
Mugabe's loss of parliament would make governing more difficult for a minority ZANU-PF cabinet because the passage of legislation would depend on cooperation from the opposition.
But the opposition will not have the two thirds majority needed to impeach the president or change the constitution.
Mugabe's ZANU-PF party would through presidential appointees have control of the Senate, the upper house of parliament, which can block legislation from the lower House.
WHAT IF TSVANGIRAI WINS?
Analysts say the end of Mugabe's rule would probably bring badly needed international aid.
The U.S. ambassador to Zimbabwe has said Zimbabweans should expect an economic package worth billions of dollars if a new democratic government that embraces free markets is formed.
An estimated 3 million Zimbabweans have fled the country. Some could return home and bring back much needed skills.
Tsvangirai has spoken in broad terms about creating conditions for foreign investment of $10 billion.
He has not spelled out how he would ease Zimbabwe's economic crisis marked by severe shortages of basic goods and the world's highest inflation rate of 165,000 percent.
Tsvangirai would likely reverse a nationalization law implemented by Mugabe that analysts have warned could deepen the economic crisis.
WHAT IF THERE IS PROLONGED STALEMATE OVER DELAYED RESULTS?
Zimbabwe could slip at least briefly into the kind of violence that hit Kenya after a disputed December election, although Mugabe's security forces are likely to quickly end unrest.
Talk has been floated of a possible national unity government as a way out of the crisis, but both sides would insist on leading such an administration.
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(For full Reuters Africa coverage and to have your say on the top issues, visit: africa.reuters.com/)
(Reporting by Harare bureau)
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