The Conference Board(R) Germany Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

Germany Leading Economic Indicators and related composite indexes for March
2008

NEW YORK, May 20 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board announced today that
the leading index for Germany declined 0.6 percent and the coincident index
remained unchanged in March.
-- The leading index declined substantially for a third consecutive month
as the stock price index, new orders in investment goods industries
and the yield spread all made large negative contributions, more than
offsetting positive contributions from the other components, including
consumer confidence which made the largest positive contribution.
Since September 2007, the leading index has declined by -2.1 percent
(about a -4.2 percent annual rate), well below the 4.8 percent annual
growth rate for the first half of 2007. Additionally, the weaknesses
among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the
strengths in recent months.

-- The coincident index, a measure of current economic conditions,
remained unchanged in March after picking up somewhat in early 2008
following steady increases throughout 2007. In March, small declines
in industrial production, retail trade and manufacturing sales were
offset by gains in employed persons*. Over the past six months, the
coincident index has increased by 1.1 percent (about a 2.2 percent
annual rate), above the 0.6 percent rate for the previous six months
(about a 1.3 percent annual rate). In addition, the strengths among
the coincident indicators have remained more widespread than the
weaknesses in recent months.

-- After fluctuating around a slightly rising trend from February 2006
through July 2007, the leading index has been in a steep decline
during the past eight months. The coincident index has continued to
grow at a steady pace in recent months, though not as fast as in the
first quarter of 2007. At the same time, real GDP growth has
increased from a 1.7 percent average annual growth rate for the second
and third quarters of 2007 to a 3.6 percent average annual rate for
the last two quarters (including a 6.3 percent annual rate for the
first quarter of 2008). The leading index has weakened since mid-2007
suggesting that although the German economy is still likely to
continue expanding, the recent pick up in economic growth is not
likely to last in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components in the leading index
increased in March. The positive contributors to the leading index -- in order
from the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- are consumer
confidence, new residential construction orders*, gross enterprises and
properties income*, and inventory change series*. Negative contributors -- in
order from largest to smallest -- are stock prices, new orders in investment
goods industries, and yield spread.
With the 0.6 percent decrease in March, the leading index now stands at
96.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.7 percent in
February and declined 0.9 percent in January. During the six-month span
through March, the leading index decreased 2.1 percent, with two of the eight
components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 28.6 percent).
*See notes under data availability
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. One of the four components that make up the
coincident index increased in March. The positive contributor to the
coincident index was employed persons. Industrial production, manufacturing
sales, and retail trade declined in March.
After remaining unchanged in March, the coincident index now stands at
111.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in
February and increased 0.5 percent in January. During the six-month period
through March, the coincident index increased 1.1 percent, with three of the
four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0
percent).
* See notes under data availability.
DATA AVAILABILITY The data series used to compute the two composite
indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 10:00 A.M. ETMay
16, 2008. Some series are estimated as noted below.
* Series in the leading index for Germany that are based on The Conference
Board estimates are inventory change, new residential construction orders, and
gross enterprises and properties income. There are no series in the coincident
index for Germany that are based on The Conference Board estimates.
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Leading Economic Indicators and the Consumer Confidence Index.
This role is part of a long tradition of research and education that
stretches back to the compilation of the first continuous measure of the cost
of living in the United States in 1919. In 1995, The Conference Board assumed
responsibility for computing the composite indexes from the U.S. Department of
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The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, June 18, 2008 at 9:30 A.M. ET
(3:30 P.M. CET)
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