Pressure increases on Mugabe but no end in sight

Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe addresses a rally in Harare June 13,2008.

HARARE (Reuters) - The opposition withdrawal from Zimbabwe's election has increased the isolation of President Robert Mugabe and is sure to bring more sanctions, but it is unlikely to end the country's crisis any time soon.

The withdrawal by Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai from next Friday's presidential run-off has guaranteed Mugabe will extend his 28-year hold on power.

Although the move will make life more difficult for the veteran leader, stripping him of a veneer of legitimacy, increasing his regional isolation and bringing tougher sanctions, his government and the security chiefs who back him are not expected to buckle yet.

That means Zimbabwe's dire economic crisis, with inflation of at least 165,000 percent and unemployment of 80 percent, can only get worse, pushing even more refugees into neighboring countries that are fast losing patience with a leader they once revered as a liberation hero.

"It's a dire situation, whichever way you look at it. It's a kind of world war for him, but I don't think we are going to see a solution in the near future, in a few months," said Eldred Masunungure, a political science professor at the University of Zimbabwe.

"I think Mugabe will try to tough this one out too, and only negotiate some kind of deal with the MDC as a very last resort," he said.

"It's more realistic to expect a long-drawn process because beyond condemnation the options for the international community to act against Mugabe and the (ruling) ZANU-PF crew that really matters are very limited."

Tsvangirai said on Monday he was ready to negotiate with ZANU-PF but only if the violence that forced his withdrawal ended.

The MDC and Tsvangirai, who beat Mugabe in a March 29 vote but failed to win the absolute majority needed to avoid a second ballot, have repeatedly accused security forces and militias of using strong-arm tactics to ensure victory in the run-off.

He says almost 90 of his followers have been killed and 200,000 been displaced. Mugabe denies his men are responsible.

"WAR"

"The MDC and its Western masters are waging a war on us, and we have been forced to adopt a defensive position to safeguard our political independence and national sovereignty," says Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa.

In the longer term, analysts say Mugabe's supporters will be forced to negotiate by the catastrophic collapse of an economy crippled by the world's highest inflation rate and chronic shortages of food, fuel and electricity.

Although the official inflation rate is 165,000 percent some experts say it is really a surreal one million percent or more, leaving many families destitute.

A senior Western diplomat said fears of possible United Nations sanctions, an imploding economy and regional fears of a refugee crisis could all help nudge Mugabe into negotiations.

But this is a solution that will be drawn out.

"At best we are going to see more pressure on Mugabe for some government of national unity," said Lovemore Madhuku, chairman of political pressure group National Constitutional Assembly.

"But if there is going to be some political accommodation, it's going to take some time," he said.

Both Mugabe, 84, and Tsvangirai, 56, have previously rejected calls for a coalition government. The withdrawal may change the dynamics but the thorniest question remains -- who would lead such an administration?

ZANU-PF hardliners, who despise Tsvangirai and see him as a Western stooge may in the long run try to entice him into a unity government, says Masunungure.

"I think even these hardliners realize the situation is dire, and they will be forced to sue for peace," he said.

But experts say Mugabe is likely to exploit the region's general hostility towards economic sanctions to dilute increased Western pressure to use this weapon.

"We are going to see more SADC leaders condemning and distancing themselves from Mugabe, but I don't see them agreeing to imposing economic sanctions themselves on Zimbabwe," he said.

Tsvangirai's MDC won a parliamentary majority in the lower House of Assembly which analysts expect to bolster his position in any negotiations. But some of the opposition legislators have fled the country fearing arrest.

"I think the international community is trying to help Zimbabwe onto that sort of path, negotiations, a transitional government of national unity and eventually fresh, free and fair democratic elections," the diplomat said.

"But I agree that in the short term there is no easy solution," he added.

"This government appears determined to go down with this country." he added.