The Conference Board(R) Germany Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

Germany Leading Economic Indicators and Related Composite Indexes for May 2008

NEW YORK, July 22 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board announced today that
the leading index for Germany declined 1.0 percent and the coincident index
decreased 0.3 percent in May.

-- The leading index declined for an eighth consecutive month as large
negative contributions from new orders in investment goods industries and the
consumer confidence index more than outweighed the positive contribution of
the stock price index in May. Since November, the leading index has declined
by 4.3 percent (about a -8.5 percent annual rate), well below the -0.2 percent
annual rate of decline for the previous six months from May to November 2007.
Additionally, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained very
widespread in recent months.

-- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, declined
in May, the second time in the last three months, as both industrial
production and manufacturing sales made large negative contributions. Between
November 2007 and May 2008, the coincident index increased by 0.7 percent
(about a 1.5 percent annual rate), the same as the growth rate for the
previous six months, but the index is essentially at the same level as January
2008. In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been
more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.

-- Since its July 2007 peak, the leading index has been on a sharp
downward trend, declining by 5.5 percent during this period. At the same
time, the coincident index has been flat since the beginning of 2008 after
growing at a steady pace throughout 2007. Although real GDP growth picked up
in the first quarter to a 6.3 percent annual rate (up from a 1.9 percent
average annual rate during the second half of 2007), the recent behavior of
the composite indexes, taken together, suggests that the recent rapid economic
growth is not likely to persist, and that risks for economic weakness going
forward continue to increase.

LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the seven components in the leading index
increased in May. The positive contributors to the leading index -- in order
from the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- are stock prices,
inventory change series*, and gross enterprises and properties income*. The
negative contributors -- in order from largest to smallest -- are new orders
in investment goods industries, consumer confidence, new residential
construction orders* and yield spread.

With the 1.0 percent decrease in May, the leading index now stands at 94.7
(1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.5 percent in April
and declined 0.7 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the
leading index decreased 4.3 percent, with one of the seven components
increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 14.3 percent).

*See notes under data availability

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up the coincident
index increased in May. The positive contributors to the coincident index were
retail trade and employed persons. Industrial production and manufacturing
sales declined in May.

With the 0.3 percent decrease in May, the coincident index now stands at 110.7
(1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in April
and decreased 0.3 percent in March. During the six-month period through May,
the coincident index increased 0.7 percent, with three of the four components
increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

* See notes under data availability.

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD. Founded in 1916, The Conference Board is the
premier business membership and research network. The Conference Board has
become a global leader in helping executives build strong professional
relationships, expand their business knowledge and find solutions to a wide
range of business challenges. The Conference Board's Economics Program, is a
recognized source of forecasts, economic analysis and objective indicators
such as the Leading Economic Indicators and the Consumer Confidence Index.

This role is part of a long tradition of research and education that stretches
back to the compilation of the first continuous measure of the cost of living
in the United States in 1919. In 1995, The Conference Board assumed
responsibility for computing the composite indexes from the U.S. Department of
Commerce. The Conference Board now produces business cycle indexes for the
U.S., Australia, France, Germany, Korea, Japan, Mexico, Spain and the U.K. To
subscribe to any of these indexes, please contact customer service at
212-339-0345, or email indicators@conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes

2008 6-month
Mar Apr May Nov to May
Leading index 96.2 p 95.7 p 94.7 p
Percent Change -0.7 p -0.5 p -1.0 p -4.3 p
Diffusion 42.9 71.4 57.1 14.3

Coincident Index 110.7 r 111.0 r 110.7 p
Percent Change -0.3 0.3 r -0.3 p 0.7 p
Diffusion 25.0 75.0 37.5 75.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 1990
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved

Website: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, August 19, 2008 at 9:30 A.M. ET
(3:30 P.M. CET)

SOURCE The Conference Board

Professional Contacts at The Conference Board, Indicator Program,
+1-212-339-0330, indicators@conference-board.org, Media Contacts, Frank
Tortorici, +1-212-339-0231, Carol Courter, +1-212-339-0232