UPDATE 7-Aluminium falls to 5-wk low on demand doubts

* Aluminium falls to 5-week low on auto demand concerns

* Lead hits 2-month high as China's top producer cuts output

* Zinc rises 3.8 percent on technical buying

* Poll - 60 percent chance of U.S. recession by year end
(Updates with New York closing copper prices, adds trader comments)

By David Sheppard

LONDON, July 23 (Reuters) - Aluminium fell to a five-week low on Wednesday
on concerns about demand from automakers, while a stronger dollar and weaker
oil prices also weighed on prices.

Aluminium for delivery in three months MAL3 closed at $3,006 a tonne on
the London Metal Exchange from $3,035 on Tuesday.

Earlier in the session the metal, which requires huge amounts of energy to
produce and is mainly used in packaging, transport and construction, touched
$2,993 a tonne, the lowest since June 17.

Automakers, which consume around 20 to 25 percent of all aluminium, use
more and more of the light metal to make their vehicles more fuel efficient.

But the global economic slowdown has led to a decline in car sales, curbing
demand. Economists polled by Reuters now see a 60 percent chance the United
States -- the world's largest economy -- will slip into a recession by the end
of the year. [ID:nL23948102]

Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) may cut its 2008 global vehicle sales target by
as much as 350,000 units to about 9.5 million because of declining sales in the
United States, Japan and Europe. [ID:nN22316148]

"They're a big consumer, and the general global outlook is pretty poor
right now," said Sucden broker James Roberts.

"The jury is out on whether the production cutbacks we're seeing in the Far
East will counteract the overhang of supply."

Aluminium has been pushed lower by sufficient supplies of the metal -- 1.1
million tonnes in LME warehouses -- even amid energy shortages in China, the
world's biggest producer of the metal.

The metal is up 25 percent since the start of the year on supply concerns
due to growing production costs created by historically high oil prices.

Energy accounts for up to 45 percent of total costs for aluminium
smelters.

Prices hit an all-time high of $3,380 a tonne in early July after China's
20 largest smelters announced production cuts of up to 10 percent in a bid to
conserve energy.

DOLLAR WEIGHS

Copper MCU3 also fell, closing at $8,080 a tonne from $8,130 on Tuesday.
In New York, copper for September delivery HGU8 ended down 3.30 cents at
$3.6575 a lb on the the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, after
hitting a 5-1/2-week low at $3.6155 earlier in the session.

The strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the euro EUR= exerted
downward pressure on the metals complex with dollar-priced commodities becoming
more expensive for consumers holding other currencies.

"We have got a stronger dollar today and crude oil has come way off its
highs over the past two weeks, so all of the commodities in general are getting
hit pretty good," said Matthew Zeman, head of trading with LaSalle Futures
Group in Chicago. "This might continue for the near-term, but I do expect the
dollar to roll back over at some point."

However, an announcement by BHP Billiton (BHP.AX)(BLT.L) on Wednesday that
output from its Escondida mine, producer of a tenth of the world's copper,
would fall by 10 to 15 percent in fiscal year 2009 could provide some support.
[ID:nSYD259450]

"The news has not filtered through and there may be a delayed reaction,"
said analyst Nick Moore at ABN AMRO.

About 150,000-225,000 tonnes could be lost on the 18 million tonne world
market over the next 12 months, he added.

Zinc MZN3 jumped higher to close at $1,925 a tonne from $1,845, with the
metal buoyed by investors moving to cover short positions -- bets that the
price would fall -- in a market which some see as oversold. Earlier the metal,
used for galvanising steel, rose by 4.3 percent to $1,924 a tonne.

Lead futures MPB3 rose to their highest level since May 20 after China's
top lead producer, Yuguang Gold and Lead (600531.SS), said it reduced
production by about one-third in July for maintenance. [ID:nHKG328698]

The metal, used mainly in batteries, reached $2,224 a tonne, up 3.9
percent, before easing to close at $2,214 compared with $2,140 on Tuesday.

Nickel MNI3 fell to close at $20,000 a tonne from $20,550 while tin
MSN3 closed at $23,100 a tonne from $23,450 on Tuesday.

Metal Prices at 1704 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2007 Ytd Pct

move
LME Cu 8080.00 -50.00 -0.61 6670.00 21.14
SHFE Cu* 62210.00 -320.00 -0.51 56880.00 9.37
LME Alum 3000.00 -35.00 -1.15 2403.00 24.84
SHFE Alu* 19060.00 -190.00 -0.99 18180.00 4.84
COMEX Cu** 371.65 -1.90 -0.51 303.05 22.64
LME Zinc 1910.00 65.00 +3.52 2370.00 -19.41
SHFE Zinc* 15310.00 -40.00 -0.26 18950.00 -19.21
LME Nick 19725.00 -775.00 -3.78 26350.00 -25.14
LME Lead 2200.00 60.00 +2.80 2550.00 -13.73
LME Tin 23100.00 -350.00 -1.49 16400.00 40.85
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contact month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
(Reporting by David Sheppard; additional reporting by Julie Crust in London
and Chris Kelly in New York; editing by Matthew Lewis)