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INSTANT VIEW: July consumer confidence off 16-year low
NEW YORK |
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence crept higher in July from the previous month's 16-year low as worries over inflation receded slightly, the Conference Board said on Tuesday.
The Conference Board said its overall monthly measure of consumers' mood rose to 51.9 this month, the first rise since December, from an upwardly revised 51.0 in June, which was the lowest since 47.3 in February 1992.
The Conference Board, an industry group, said its gauge of inflation expectations edged lower to 7.6 percent after hitting a record high of 7.7 percent in May and June.
COMMENTS:
SCOTT BROWN, CHIEF ECONOMIST WITH RAYMOND JAMES &
ASSOCIATES IN ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA:
"The stock market will have a kneejerk positive reaction to
the better-than-expected headline figures, but this is not a big change: the level is still pretty weak at this point."
KATHY LIEN, CHIEF STRATEGIST AT DAILYFX.COM, NEW YORK:
"There is not much of a surprise given the bump-up in the University of Michigan number last week. We're setting up for a dollar rally that will probably take the euro to $1.55. Not only are we seeing stabilization in the consumer data, we're also expecting GDP to come out stronger than expected this week in the U.S."
SUBODH KUMAR, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SUBODH KUMAR & ASSOCIATES, TORONTO:
"I think we may be seeing a bottoming out of confidence rather than the start of an increasing trend. Energy prices have to be watched, and if those keep moving lower, that should help consumers as should better employment numbers. I still maintain that the S&P 500 around 1215 would be fair value where you would see more investors coming in. At these levels, we could still see a pullback, especially if we get more cautionary news on write-downs. Negative financial news will pull the whole market down. Consumer confidence is a positive, as is the dollar's move up, but I think that will just cause more volatility for now."
JIM AWAD, CHAIRMAN OF W.P. STEWART ASSET MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK:
"The oil price drop is tremendously helpful. I think people view it as relieving a major strain on the economy, combined with a feeling that Merrill is working its way through its problems, combined with consumer confidence, the third economic number in the last week, that was a little better than expected.
"So you're getting a modest rebound after a big decline yesterday and it looks like it's gaining momentum."
ROBERT BRUSCA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, FACT AND OPINION ECONOMICS, NEW YORK:
"We know the consumers are very attuned to gas and oil prices and they have been coming down. But the jobless claims and the corporate layoffs data are showing more pressure. It's still a very mixed environment."
"There are signs of some hint of stabilization in housing, but the IMF is not so upbeat on them. It's hard to put a shiny gloss on this confidence report."
MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: US benchmark S&P500 stock index edged up to around 1246; BONDS: Benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields rose to around 4.07 percent; DOLLAR: The US dollar firmed with the euro around $1.5635 and the yen around 108.15.
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