Roche tipped to be world's top drugmaker by 2014

LONDON (Reuters) - Switzerland's Roche Holding AG (ROG.VX) is set to become the world's biggest drugmaker by sales in 2014, as current market leader Pfizer Inc (PFE.N) skids down the rankings to sixth place, according to a study on Monday.

The realignment of the global drugs industry reflects the looming "cliff" of patent expiries, which will see many of the world's top-selling medicines cannibalized by cheap generics over the next five years.

Forecasting company EvaluatePharma, which uses consensus analysts' sales estimates for its calculations, expects Roche to emerge as top dog in this tough new environment, reflecting its strength in fast-growing biotech drugs and its lack of near-term patent risks.

Roche moved to consolidate its position in biotech-based cancer medicines last month by offering $43.7 billion to buy out the 44 percent of California-based Genentech Inc DNA.N it does not already own.

But even before that deal, which many investors expect to go through, albeit at a slightly sweetened price, Roche is on course to overtake all comers, with expected annual drug sales reaching $49.5 billion in 2014, EvaluatePharma said.

It will be followed in the rankings by three other European pharmaceutical companies, Sanofi-Aventis SA (SASY.PA), GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK.L) and Novartis AG (NOVN.VX), with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) the only U.S. group making the top five.

Industry analysts have long warned that a raft of big-ticket patent losses are about to transform the drugs sector, leading investors to respond by massively de-rating those stocks at greatest risk.

As a result, Pfizer shares trade on just 7.3 times forecast 2009 earnings, against 14.9 times for Roche, according to Reuters data.

And Roche's market value is already substantially higher than Pfizer's at around $160 billion against $126 billion.

Pfizer is the highest-profile casualty of the patent cliff, with cholesterol fighter Lipitor, blood pressure pill Norvasc, impotence drug Viagra and eye drug Xalatan set to lose a combined $16.7 billion in sales in the seven years to 2014.

But its slide in ranking is expected to be matched by Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.N), which is set to plunge five places to 15th, mainly due to the loss of patent protection on anti-psychotic drug Zyprexa.

The table below gives the top 10 league table for 2014, based on forecast total prescription and over-the-counter drug sales:

(Source: EvaluatePharma)

(Editing by Paul Bolding)