Consumers expect stocks to fall: survey

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Households consider it more likely than ever that their stock holdings will fall in value over the next year, a survey released on Friday said.

The Reuters/University of Michigan survey said consumers saw a 40.6 percent chance their stock holdings would rise in the year ahead, the lowest number since the question was first asked in 2002, compared with 42.9 percent in the second quarter.

The results were based on a random nationwide telephone survey of 1,000 Americans in June and July.

Pessimism was consistent in households of all income levels and investor ages, the survey showed. Among those who own stock portfolios worth more than $150,000 -- the top third of households -- the probability of gains was 46.3 percent, down from 50.1 percent in the second quarter.

Investors with the smallest holdings -- under $40,000 -- saw a 41.1 percent chance of price gains over the next year, down from 46.8 percent in the second quarter and 50.6 percent in the first quarter, the survey showed.

The median value of stock holdings was $59,136 across all households in 2008, the survey found. Nearly two-thirds of all households owned stocks.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI and Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX have each fallen nearly 14 percent so far in 2008, while the Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC is off about 11 percent.

(Reporting by Steven C. Johnson; Editing by Leslie Adler)