Fitch Rates Telemar's Proposed Notes 'BBB-'; Affirms Ratings
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MONTERREY, Mexico & RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil--(Business Wire)-- Fitch has taken the following actions for Tele Norte Leste Participacoes S.A. (TNE) and Telemar Norte Leste S.A. (TMAR), collectively refer to as Oi: TNE --Local Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) affirmed at 'BBB-'; --Foreign Currency IDR affirmed at 'BBB-'; --National scale rating affirmed at 'AA+(bra)'; TMAR --Local Currency IDR affirmed at 'BBB-'; --Foreign Currency IDR affirmed at 'BBB-'; --National scale rating affirmed at 'AA+(bra); All ratings are removed from Negative Rating Watch. The Rating Outlook is Stable. Fitch has also assigned a 'BBB-' rating to the proposed US$1.5 billion Sr. Notes to be offered by TMAR. Proceeds from the notes are expected to be used to complete funding for the Brasil Telecom acquisition. The rating action reflects Fitch's expectation that Oi's capital structure will remain in levels consistent with the rating category whether or not the acquisition of Brasil Telecom is completed as it needs approval by the Brazilian authorities. Oi is expected to continue raising the necessary funds to complete the acquisition. If the transaction is approved, Fitch expects on a proforma basis including Brasil Telecom and necessary funding, total-debt to EBITDA and net-debt to EBITDA ratios should approximate to 2.4-2.5 times(x) and 1.8-2.0x, respectively. Total debt-to-EBITDA is expected to strengthen over the next few years to levels close to 1.7x, which Fitch views to be the company's long term target capital structure. In the event that the transaction is not approved, Fitch expects Oi will repay debt with cash balances to reduce leverage to levels more in line with its long term target capital structure after disbursing BRL3.9 billion for a TMAR extraordinary dividend and paying BRL490 million to Brasil Telecom's majority shareholders of a break up fee; in addition Oi will probably try to dispose of Brasil Telecom's shares already acquired in the voluntary tender offers. Oi's revenue mix, cash flow generation and business risk is not expected to materially change with the acquisition of Brasil Telecom. While the main cash flow generator will continue to be the local service segment, both companies continue to face challenges in fixed local services as mobile and broadband substitution continues to gain presence in local traffic. Fitch expects that fixed-line revenue declines should be compensated by other services. Future growth for the next few years, in revenues and cash flow, should be driven by data and mobile services including the recently acquired Amazonia Celular and the launching of mobile operations in Sao Paulo by the end of the year. Fitch believes the integration of Brasil Telecom operations into Oi should increase the competitive position of the company, particularly in the mobile and corporate segments, and geographically complement the fixed and broadband businesses. Mobile services should benefit from a nationwide network and the offering of attractive bundle solutions with integrated fixed and mobile voice, broadband and video services which can result in increased market share in the mobile segment, particularly in Region II, where Brasil Telecom share is about 14%. The addition of Brasil Telecom's backbone into Oi, should create a national backbone for domestic corporate networks very similar to Embratel's backbone. After the transaction is closed, Brasil Telecom Participacoes S.A. (BRP) and its subsidiary Brasil Telecom S.A. (BTM) will merge and become a wholly own subsidiary of TMAR. Fitch expects the new group to have a strong cash flow generation and to incorporate some synergies. Brasil Telecom acquisition by Oi still needs approval of antitrust authority CADE and by the government who needs to change the Brazilian National Plan of Concessions (Plano Geral de Outorgas - PGO). CADE resolution is expected by no later than the end of November while government change of the PGO may occur by the end of the year. To change the PGO, the president of Brazil has to decide the number of incumbents and then Anatel needs to give its approval. If the acquisition is not approved by the end of the year, Brasil Telecom controlling shareholders have the right to extend the purchase agreement until April 2009. Regulatory risk is moderate. On August of 2008, the SDE opened administrative processes on the four biggest mobile players, including Oi's mobile subsidiary, for the mobile network termination rates (VU-M). While according to regulation VUM rates are freely negotiated between operators within the next three years, Fitch notes that an eventual reduction in this rate can have a negative short term effect in revenues that should be compensated by increase usage due to elasticity of demand. Present regulatory issues include the introduction in phases between September of 2008 and March of 2009 of number portability for fixed and mobile services, a probable auction for Wimax licenses during 2009 and the change of PL29 which should allow telecom operators to provide broadcasting services. While is too early to determine the final outcome of number portability, Fitch believes that mobile operations of Oi and Brasil Telecom should benefit from portability and the fixed-line segments should be under additional pressure but should be somewhat mitigated with bundles such as 'Oi Conta Total'. In line with the expected changes of PL29, Oi has applied for a DTH license in order to provide on its own this service in all areas excluding those where Way TV provides services. Oi's liquidity risk is reasonable, with expected cash balances of approximately BRL3.0 billion by year-end (plus another BRL3.0 billion from Brasil Telecom if the acquisition is completed), strong cash generation and manageable debt maturity profile. The company will face maturities of approximately BRL5.2 billion in 2010, which most likely should be refinanced despite expected cash on balance sheet and cash flow generation. Total gross indebtedness at TNE is expected to increase to approximately BRL20.8 billion by the end of 2008 plus the consolidation of debt from Brasil Telecom. Total unconsolidated debt at TNE amounted to BRL1.2 billion as of Jun.30, 2008. Going forward Fitch expects that all debt should be allocated at TMAR, leaving TNE with no debt. In addition to BTM's debt if the acquisition is completed, TNE's total debt by year-end should be composed of BRL4.3 billion loan by Banco do Brasil, BRL3.6 billion of promissory notes, BRL3.3 billion of BNDES financing, BRL2.4 billion in international bonds, BRL2.3 billion in debentures and BRL4.9 billion in other debt including swaps. Credit protection measures are expected to gradually improve over the next few years as the company generates free cash flow. On a proforma basis, considering full year 2008 operations of Brasil Telecom and increase in indebtedness, total debt-to-EBTIDA, FFO adjusted leverage and EBITDA-to interest expense should approximate 2.4x, 2.4x and 8.7x, respectively. While 2008 will result in negative free cash flow due to acquisitions, TNE is expected to generate free cash flow over the next few years that should support a reduction in the leverage of the company. TMAR is expected to pay dividends of 100% of net income over the next few years. Oi provides fixed telecommunications services in region I, which comprises 16 states and includes Rio de Janeiro. The company also provides Internet, data transmission, long-distance and mobile services. TNE, who controls Oi, is majority controlled by Telemar Participacoes S.A.(TMARPART), which is in turn controlled by a group of Brazilian investors. Brasil Telecom provides fixed-line local, long-distance data transmission and mobile services in Region II, which comprises southern and midwestern Brazil. For full year-end 2008, proforma revenues and EBTIDA for the new entity, considering the acquisition, should approximate to over BRL29.5 billion and BRL10.5 billion, respectively. Fitch's rating definitions and the terms of use of such ratings are available on the agency's public site, www.fitchratings.com. Published ratings, criteria and methodologies are available from this site, at all times. Fitch's code of conduct, confidentiality, conflicts of interest, affiliate firewall, compliance and other relevant policies and procedures are also available from the 'Code of Conduct' section of this site. Fitch Ratings Sergio Rodriguez, CFA, +52 81 8399-9100 (Monterrey) Mauro Storino, +55 21 4503-2600 (Rio de Janeiro) Media Relations: Jaqueline Carvalho, +55 21 4503 2623 (Rio de Janeiro RJ) Cindy Stoller, +1-212-908-0526 (New York) Copyright Business Wire 2008
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