McCain vs. Obama: The battleground looks familiar

Democratic presidential nominee Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) (L) shakes hands with Republican presidential nominee Senator John McCain (R-AZ) as they participate in the ''ServiceNation Presidential Candidates Forum'' at Columbia University in New York, September 11, 2008.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican John McCain's recent surge in opinion polls has restored a familiar look to a White House race that once promised to reshuffle the political map, with traditional battleground states like Ohio and Michigan back at center stage.

McCain's momentum has improved his standing in several swing states that hold the keys to the White House, and put a dent in Democrat Barack Obama's hopes of expanding the fight to normally Republican states like Georgia, Montana and Indiana.

As a result, the November 4 presidential election is likely to be decided in many of the same states as the 2004 race between Republican President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry.

"Most of these states are still close and competitive, but the map is beginning to look an awful lot like 2004," pollster John Zogby said.

Four big battleground states -- Ohio and Florida, won by Bush in 2004, and Pennsylvania and Michigan, won by Kerry -- will be top targets for Obama and McCain in the next seven weeks.

New Hampshire, Virginia and three toss-up states in the West -- Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico -- also will get plenty of attention from the candidates. All but New Hampshire were won by Bush in 2004, and only Virginia and Colorado were not hard-fought in that race.

Other states like Wisconsin, Minnesota and Missouri could rise to prominence in the next seven weeks as the candidates hunt for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Those votes, allocated to each state based on their population, are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state.

The momentum generated by McCain with his pick of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his No. 2 has propelled him into essentially a tie with Obama in national polls.

At the state level, it allowed McCain to close the gap on Obama in Democratic-leaning Michigan and Pennsylvania -- states where a McCain win would spell disaster for Obama -- and to open solid leads on Obama in states like Florida and Missouri.

McCain has a slight lead in Ohio, which could prove to be the ultimate battleground again just as in 2004, when Bush's narrow win there edged out Kerry.

MCCAIN NEEDS OHIO

"McCain probably can't win without Ohio, it gets very hard to piece together the electoral votes he needs without it," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. "Obama can't win without Pennsylvania."

Obama had hoped a national surge in Democratic voter registration, along with record turnout among young and black voters, could help boost him in traditional Republican strongholds like Georgia, North Dakota, Montana and Indiana, but those hopes appear to be fading.

Obama, an Illinois senator, still has a strong shot at capturing several states won by Bush in 2004. At the top of the list is Iowa, where Obama started his run to the Democratic nomination with a win in January and where McCain finished a weak fourth among Republicans.

Obama and McCain also are running neck-and-neck in New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada, three states where population changes and a growing Hispanic electorate have bolstered Democratic prospects.

But those three Western states combined have only 19 electoral votes -- less than Ohio alone -- and could have an affinity for their fellow Westerners in McCain, an Arizona senator, and Palin.

"In the Western states, there is a cultural advantage for McCain and Palin that could make a difference in a close election," Brown said. "And it's an open question how many new Hispanic voters there will be."

Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, also hopes to capture Virginia, a Southern state that has not voted for a Democrat in a presidential race since 1964.

The state has shifted toward Democrats in recent elections as the growing northern suburbs outside Washington account for one-third of state voters. McCain has solidified his lead in the past few weeks, but Obama has made a major push for the state's 13 electoral votes.

Obama, however, has struggled in Florida to keep pace with the showings of Kerry, who lost by 5 percentage points, and Gore, who lost the state to Bush by 537 votes in a disputed result in 2000.

McCain, a former Vietnam prisoner of war, hopes his appeal to independents and Obama's difficulties with white working-class voters make for a winning combination in crucial blue-collar battlegrounds like Michigan and Pennsylvania.

"Obama's weakness with white working class voters is why Michigan is in play. In this kind of economy, with a Republican president with this kind of unpopularity, the Democratic nominee should not have to be worrying about Michigan. But he does," Brown said.

(Editing by Patricia Wilson and David Wiessler)