The Conference Board(R) Mexico Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

Mexico Leading Economic Indicators and Related Composite Indexes for August
2008

NEW YORK, Oct. 23 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board announced today that
the leading index for Mexico decreased 0.9 percent and the coincident index
decreased 0.2 percent in August.
-- The leading index declined substantially in August as the oil price,
the
construction component of industrial production and the stock price
index components all made very large negative contributions. As a
result, since February, the six-month growth rate of the leading index
has slowed to 2.0 percent (about a 4.1 percent annual rate), which is
below the 5.3 percent annual rate that prevailed between August 2007
and
February 2008. In addition, the strengths and weaknesses among the
leading indicators have remained balanced in recent months.
-- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, also
declined in August, the fourth decline in the past six months. In
August, employment, as measured by total IMSS beneficiaries, was the
largest negative contributor. The six-month growth rate of the
coincident index fell to - 0.8 percent (about a -1.5 percent annual
rate), down sharply from the 5.0 percent annual rate of growth that
prevailed for the previous six-month period ending in February.
However,
the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained slightly
more widespread than weaknesses over the last six months.
-- After declining in late 2007 through January of this year, the leading
index resumed growing in February; however, this growth has been
moderate and volatile. At the same time, the coincident index has been
fluctuating around an essentially flat trend, and its six-month growth
rate has become negative for the first time in three years. Meanwhile,
real GDP grew at a 0.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter after
a
-0.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2008. Taken together,
the recent behavior of the composite indexes so far suggests that slow
economic growth should continue in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up the leading index
increased in August. The positive contributors to the index--from the largest
positive contributor to the smallest one--are net insufficient inventories and
the (inverted) real exchange rate. The negative contributors to the
index--from the largest negative contributor to the smallest one--are the US
refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, the industrial
production construction component, stock prices, and the (inverted) federal
funds rate.

With the 0.9 percent decrease in August, the leading index now stands at 171.9
(1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in July
and increased 0.2 percent in June. During the six-month span through August,
the index increased 2.0 percent, with three of the six components increasing
(diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
*See notes under data availability.

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. None of the three components that make up the
coincident index increased in August. The number of people employed (measured
by total IMSS beneficiaries), industrial production, and retail sales*
declined in August.

With the decrease of 0.2 percent in August, the coincident index now stands at
169.1 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.5 percent in
July and increased 0.9 percent in June. During the six-month span through
August, the index decreased -0.8 percent, with two of the three components
increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
*See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes
reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10
A.M.October 21, 2008. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board
estimates include retail sales.

The next release is scheduled for Monday, November 24, 2008 at 11:00 A.M. (ET)
In Mexico -Monday, November 24, 2008at 10:00 A.M. (MEX)

Website: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/

SOURCE The Conference Board

Indicator Program, +1-212-339-0330, Frank Tortorici, +1-212-339-0231, Carol
Courter, +1-212-339-0232, all for The Conference Board