Research and Markets: Safe Haven: Understand How Telstra Will Remain Resistant from...

Research and Markets: Safe Haven: Understand How Telstra Will Remain Resistant from Economic Downturns in Australia's Telecommunications Sector

DUBLIN, IrelandResearch and Markets Ltd.--(Business Wire)--
Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/1c51aa/safe_haven_telstr)
has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report
"Safe Haven: Telstra Remains Resistant from Economic Downturns in
Australia's Telecommunications Sector" to their offering.

In this Competitor Insight report on Telstra Corp., we provide
five reasons why we think Telstra will be resistant to an economic
slowdown: 1) Telco services are relatively defensive - even the newer
services (broadband & mobile) are considered essential in personal and
business life; 2) Telstra is financially strong and can weather a
slowdown, arguably better than its competitors; 3) Secular trends
continue to dominate but as the industry matures the ability of
secular trends to overwhelm cyclical issues is declining; 4) Although
we are beginning to see the first clear instances of the economic
impacts in other markets - broadband in particular in both the US and
some European markets - Australia is different; and 5) In Telstra's
case, Pay TV and broadband would be the first segments to see a
contraction in growth if the Australian economy slows down. That is,
Telstra's core revenues from PSTN & Fixed line and Mobile will not be
affected as much.

Key Topics Covered:

- We are forecasting 3.5% revenue growth for FY09 given that
Telstra's revenue growth will still be resilient if economy slows

- Telstra's PSTN & fixed-line, mobile, and business services &
Sensis revenues and cashflows are particularly solid

- Euro & US operators are showing poor performances; cyclical
factors are emerging in the telecommunications sector

- Telstra with few credit market issues is one of the best
defensive prospects in volatile markets

- Telcos are defensive because of the near essential, utility
nature of their services

Economic indicators for Telstra to watch; consumer confidence and
business confidence lead to high demand for internet and for
data/business services

- Telstra group revenues are tied to the health of the broader
Australian economy; an annual GDP decline of over 0.5% would be needed
to cause Telstra revenues to go into reverse, a scenario that has not
occurred in Australia since 1991

- Home phone lines contribute the majority of Telstra access lines
in service and remain pervasive despite the potential of the mobile
only home

- Post-paid mobile market is affected by the overall economy; 65%
of Telstra's subs are post-paid, generating 89% of total services
revenue

- Unlike in the US and Europe, internet/broadband growth in
Australia is not influenced by economic conditions

- What the Yellow directory tells us: Little correlation between
Sensis' revenue performance and business confidence

- No correlation between economic indicators and data and business
services revenue because these services must be maintained even during
economic downturns

- Pay TV is the most discretionary of the portfolio of products
sold by Telstra and it is susceptible to economic slowdown, but only
2% of Telstra's revenue comes from Pay TV

Other risks that Telstra faces in an economic slowdown: Failure of
Bill Express and consolidation of Telstra's suppliers

Telstra management's comments on economic impacts

- Sol Trujillo: "Telstra Group's customer-centric and
value-differentiated approach combats macroeconomic environments"

- John Stanhope: "We expect double-digit revenue growth in mobile
services in 2009"

Competitors' outlook on economic conditions

- Optus may be more susceptible to economic conditions than
Telstra due to its higher proportion of pre-paid subscribers

- Unlike in its home market of New Zealand, AAPT (TCNZ)'s business
in Australia is resilient from an economic standpoint

- With 70% of its revenue from the "resource" states of WA & QLD,
iiNet remains resilient from macroeconomic factors

- Hutchison's has one of the most defensive profiles in the mobile
segment because over 90% of the customer base is on post-paid services

- List of Charts

- List of Tables

Companies Mentioned:

-Telstra

-Hutchison (HTA)

-Optus

-iiNet

-AAPT

For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/1c51aa/safe_haven_telstr

Research and Markets

Laura Wood

Senior Manager

Fax from USA: 646-607-1907

Fax from rest of the world: +353-1-481-1716

press@researchandmarkets.com

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