SNAP ANALYSIS-Iraq passes landmark U.S. security pact

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's parliament passed a security pact with Washington on Thursday, bolstering Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's nationalist credentials by ushering in an end to the U.S. military presence that began with the 2003 invasion.

Lawmakers of Iraq's 275-seat parliament passed a law authorizing the deal with 149 MPs out of 198 present voting for it. Had they rejected it, the government said it would not renew a U.N. security mandate governing the U.S. presence and U.S. forces would have to go home immediately.

IRAQ CLAWS BACK SOVEREIGNTY

* For the first time since U.S.-led forces invaded Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iraq's government will have control over the roughly 150,000 U.S. troops operating here. U.S. troops will no longer be able to raid houses, kill or capture suspected militants or drop bombs, unless Iraqi authorities approve their missions.

*The U.S. military will also have to hand over the estimated 16,000-17,000 prisoners they currently hold to the Iraqi authorities. Some of those will be charged under Iraqi warrants but the rest will have to be released.

*Washington must withdraw every last U.S. soldier by the end of 2011, a firm timetable the outgoing administration of U.S. President George W. Bush agreed to after months of painstaking negotiations. But the last U.S. soldier could conceivably leave earlier if the security situation in Iraq allows for it.

CLOCK TICKING FOR IRAQI SECURITY FORCES

*The withdrawal deadline gives Baghdad and Washington three years to bolster Iraq's own security forces to the point where they can handle internal and external threats alone. Not everyone agrees that is enough time.

*Violence has fallen to some of its lowest levels since after the invasion. Sunni Arab tribal leaders have joined U.S. forces to rout al Qaeda militants from their traditional strongholds. The once powerful Mehdi Army militia of Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has been largely disbanded -- for now.

*But U.S. commanders stress all these gains are fragile and could be reversed if Iraq does not continue with progress toward reconciliation between feuding factions. Militants still carry out lethal bomb attacks across Iraq every day.

MALIKI SEEN STRENGTHENED

* Prime Minister Maliki is perhaps the biggest winner from this pact. He negotiated hard to get the best deal he could from Washington. Securing a firm timetable has enabled him to paint himself as a nationalist -- a sly turn around for a leader who was once written off as weak and sectarian.

*He will continue to enjoy U.S. military backing, while claiming accolades for being the one who ended the occupation.

*It will also take the teeth out of U.S. efforts to put pressure on him to make reforms, like reconciliation with Kurds over disputed oil wealth and territories. The United States will no longer be able make its military support conditional.

CONSENSUS ACHIEVED? SUNNIS IN, SADRISTS OUT

*Iraqi leaders and the country's influential top Shi'ite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani had sought a broad consensus among Iraq's main religious and ethnic groups. On the face of it that appears to have been achieved.

*Days of political stalemate between Maliki's ruling Shi'ite coalition and the main Sunni Arab blocs had made it seem unlikely a solution would be reached. The two main Sunni blocs wanted the deal subject to a national referendum and they had other demands the ruling bloc said were impossible to meet.

In the end, they settled for the referendum and some other watered down articles of political reform.

*Analysts say this was largely posturing to put their stamp on the pact. The Sunni Arabs need the U.S. presence and are mindful of the sectarian chaos of 2006, when Shi'ite death squads killed them en masse.

*Left in the dark are the smaller Shi'ite factions who opposed it, like the Sadrists, who have resisted any deal with a force they term occupiers. They have been further marginalized.

REFERENDUM?

*To get the deal through parliament, Maliki's bloc had to agree to a referendum by the end of next July. That won't delay its implementation on January 1 2008, since it goes into effect until the vote is organized. Parliament will have to pass new legislation for the referendum.

*Analysts say its anyone's guess how this is going to work or whether there is enough public support for it but some say they believe Maliki has gained enough popularity by presiding over a sharp drop in violence to ensure a "Yes" vote.

*Iraqis are resentful of the U.S. presence but they don't yet have a great deal of faith in their own security forces, so they know they probably need the Americans here for longer.

(Editing by Michael Christie and Samia Nakhoul)