FACTBOX: Impact of political turmoil on Thailand's outlook

(Reuters) - Financial and political risk analysts have sharply downgraded their outlook for Thailand after protesters stormed and shut down Bangkok's main international airport a week ago, the latest escalation in a long-running power struggle.

On Tuesday, Thai judges ordered Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat's ruling People Power Party disbanded after it was found guilty of voter fraud.

Following is a roundup of key changes to forecasts and risk indicators:

GOVERNMENT/OFFICIAL GROWTH FORECASTS

-- Finance Minister Suchart Thada-Thamrongvech said on Monday political turmoil had shattered business confidence and economic growth in 2009 could be between zero and 2 percent.

-- The economy may even contract next year and 1.2 million people could lose their jobs, Deputy Prime Minister Olarn Chaipravat said.

-- State planning agency NESDB, which compiles GDP data, says Thailand was unlikely to reach even the low end of previous 3-4 percent forecast growth in 2009.

IMPACT ON TOURISM

-- Bank of Thailand chief economist Amara Sriphayuk said the tourist sector could lose 140 billion baht ($4 billion) in revenue next year -- 1.5 percent of GDP -- if political turmoil continues to the end of the year.

-- Deputy Prime Minister Olarn says tourist arrivals in 2009 could be half the 13.5 million now expected for 2008. The 2008 figure is down from 14.5 million in 2007.

ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT OUTLOOK

-- Analyst Jacob Hamstra says the EIU's expectations for Thai economic performance and political stability have not dramatically worsened over the past week. "But this is largely because they had already fallen dramatically in the past month (for the economy) and over the past two years or so (regarding the political situation)," he says.

-- EIU cut its 2009 Thai growth forecast in November to 1.9 percent from 3.8 percent.

"We may lower this even further," Hamstra says.

-- "Our assessment has for quite some time been that ending Thailand's political crisis will require a solution to the power struggle between the royalist bureaucratic elite and the urban middle class on one side and Thaksin's supporters on the other," Hamstra says.

"In turn, we have been and continue to be quite pessimistic about the prospects of such a resolution occurring in the short- to medium-term."

STANDARD & POOR'S OUTLOOK

-- Standard & Poor's downgraded its sovereign outlook on Thailand to negative from stable on Monday.

"The recent occupation of the two airports in Bangkok by anti-government protesters has increased the risks to sovereign creditworthiness," said analyst Kim Eng Tan.

"It has caused serious disruptions to economic activities in the kingdom and raises the possibility of widespread violence markedly. These developments will add to the negative pressures of a global slowdown on Thailand's economy.

The sovereign ratings could be lowered if economic performance weakens sharply as a result," Kim said, adding that the outlook could return to stable if political divisions were resolved "peacefully in a sustained manner."

FITCH RATINGS OUTLOOK

-- Fitch downgraded Thailand sovereign outlook to negative from stable on Monday.

-- "The revision to the outlook is based on Fitch's view that the extended period of political turmoil surrounding Thailand's leadership shows no sign of resolution, and may undermine Thai sovereign credit fundamentals, especially as the global economy enters recession," said sovereign group associate director Vincent Ho.

"It is a concern that, in the absence of effective and credible political leadership, economic policy could be either neglected or ineffective at a time when policy stimulus is likely required to address a sharp economic correction."

-- Fitch forecasts GDP growth of 0.9 percent in 2009.

MOODY'S INVESTOR SERVICES OUTLOOK

-- Moody's has so far left its stable outlook for Thailand unchanged.

-- On November 11 it noted: "Negative rating pressures could come from: a weakening of external competitiveness that undermines the external payments position; fiscally unsustainable social welfare or public investment programs; or a major deterioration in political stability which severely undermines economic performance."

(Reporting by Orathai Sriring and Arada Therdthammakhun in Bangkok and Rafael Nam in Hong Kong; compiled by Andrew Marshall; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)