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FACTBOX: Possible triggers for unrest in China

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Tue Jan 6, 2009 6:27am EST

(Reuters) - Chinese officials have warned that the country faces rising social unrest as growth slows and unemployment rises.

China is secretive with data about unrest. The most recent public official estimate of the number of "mass incidents" -- an official euphemism for riots, protests and demonstrations -- said there were 23,000 in 2006.

Here are some factors that could stoke protests, strikes and demonstrations in 2009, when China also passes several politically sensitive anniversaries.

* JOBLESSNESS - The government is worried about rising joblessness among rural migrants who came from the countryside to factories and cities. Many thousands of factories have shut down in southern and eastern China since the global financial crisis battered export orders. Lay-offs have brought protests over unpaid wages.

* STUDENTS - Unemployment could rise among young people as more university and college graduates than ever before compete for scarce jobs. More than 7 million new and recent graduates will seek jobs in 2009, but the government target for GDP growth would create only 8 million jobs for the whole country, according to Xinhua reporter Huang Huo, quoted in state-run Outlook Magazine.

* GROWING RICH-POOR GAP - The Chinese countryside fell behind as soaring growth from the 1980s concentrated wealth and access to public services in urban areas. In 2007, urban Chinese earned 3.3 times as much as people in the countryside, up from 1.9 times as much in 1985, according to a U.N. report.

* RURAL LAND DISPUTES - China initiated reforms last year to allow farmers to transfer land-use rights. Their potential misuse by local governments reliant on illegal land seizures for income could stoke discontent.

* CORRUPTION - Public anger over bribery and corruption among local government officials is likely to continue to fuel discontent. Last year, 30,000 residents of a town in southwest China watched and cheered as rioters torched and trashed government and police buildings after the alleged government cover-up of a murder.

* SENSITIVE ANNIVERSARIES - In 2009, China passes through several major anniversaries, a big concern in this country where such dates have galvanized protest. These anniversaries include the 50th year since the Dalai Lama fled Tibet into exile in March 1959, and the 20th year since troops crushed pro-democracy protests in Beijing and other cities around June 4, 1989.

(Reporting by Beijing newsroom; Editing by Nick Macfie and Sanjeev Miglani)

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