Gaza outcome could increase Lebanon risk

BEIRUT (Reuters) - A defeat for Hamas in its fight with Israel could increase the risk of another Middle East conflict between the Jewish state and the Palestinian group's Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, analysts say.

Hezbollah, which like Hamas is backed by Iran, has expressed confidence that the Palestinian group will survive the Israeli onslaught that began on December 27. It has drawn parallels with its 34-day war with Israel in 2006, when Hezbollah guerrillas withstood an invasion and the group declared a "divine victory."

But analysts say an outcome that badly weakens Hamas, perhaps achieving Israel's goal of choking off its ability to rearm, could boost the chance of more conflict with Hezbollah, which has expanded its arsenal since the 2006 war.

Were Hamas crushed, it would be a blow to both the Islamist group and its regional allies. Supported by Tehran, Hezbollah might feel it must act to buttress its camp against the extra sway Israel and U.S.-allied Arab states would gain.

Adding to the risk, Israel might also see such a moment as opportune to press its advantage and try to tackle the Hezbollah threat, said Lebanese political analyst Rafik Nasrallah.

The serious weakening of Hamas in Gaza would be a major blow to Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, said Suleiman Taqieddin, a commentator with Lebanon's as-Safir newspaper.

"If the resistance is broken, it means we face a new regional situation," he told Reuters. "This will lead to dangerous developments."

Hezbollah and Iran both view Hamas as the "little brother of the regional alliance they are a part of," added Jonathan Spyer, analyst at the Herzliya Interdisciplinary Center think-tank near Tel Aviv.

If it were seen to be on the verge of defeat, "then there's a real possibility of Hezbollah getting into the fray," he said.

Oussama Safa of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies described the Gaza campaign as an "Iranian-Israeli duel."

"The Israelis entered this having a score 1-0 to the Iranians after 2006. They are endeavoring to make it 1-1. If they succeed, I don't think the Iranians will sit still. They will have to do something," he said. "Depending on the nature of the results of Gaza, it might be sooner than we think."

"ALL OPTIONS ARE OPEN"

The Gaza fighting has increased tension along the Lebanese-Israeli border. Both sides are on guard, although they also have strong reasons for not wanting another war for now.

Israel has mobilized tens of thousands of reservists since the Gaza ground offensive began. The army has not disclosed where they would be deployed, but there has been speculation in the Israeli media that some would be stationed in the north.

"Let no one delude himself about the degree of our determination and preparedness along every front," Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told European diplomats this week.

"We hope very much no one will put our determination and ability to respond to the test," he said.

Wary that Israel's campaign could mark the start of a wider offensive against its foes, Hezbollah put its fighters on alert early in the conflict. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Nasrallah said on Wednesday his group was ready for all possibilities.

"We do not yet know the size of the conspiracy and its dimensions and the size of the collaboration. We must act on the basis that all options are open," he said at a Beirut rally to mark the annual Shi'ite commemoration of Ashura.

Nasrallah regularly aims muscular remarks at Israel as part of what he has described as a policy of deterrence to avoid another war. Although Hezbollah saw the 2006 war as a military success, it also acknowledged the great cost of sustained Israeli airstrikes for Lebanon's population.

But even if Hezbollah aims to avoid another conflict, other militant groups operating in Lebanon and sympathetic to Hamas could trigger an escalation. The Lebanese army last month found and dismantled eight rockets aimed at Israel.

"I am really worried. I know very well that Hezbollah is not going to start a war. But there are many parties that can start a confrontation," Lebanese political commentator Sateh Noureddin said.

(Additional reporting by Allyn Fisher-Ilan and Jeffrey Heller in Jerusalem)