Small Russian gas firms face risks in Gazprom row

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian independent gas firms will be told to shut down their wells, becoming hostages to the Russia-Ukraine row, if the export problems facing giant gas company Gazprom lead to a serious domestic glut.

Gazprom's exports to Europe are now half the usual volumes as no gas is flowing through pipelines across Ukrainian soil because of a pricing row between Moscow and Kiev, causing shortages that have hit 18 countries in Europe.

Gazprom, the world's largest gas producer, has increased European exports via other routes but some 200 million cubic meters per day -- enough to meet the demand from Europe's top economy Germany -- are now locked inside Russia.

With low domestic demand due to long New Year holidays and a sharp economic contraction, Gazprom, which controls all Russian gas pipelines, may soon face a choice of whether to shut down its own wells or stop accepting gas from third parties.

"Independent producers, like Novatek, and oil firms producing gas will suffer most," said Ivan Mazalov, who helps manage $2 billion at Prosperity Capital Management.

"Pipelines are not different from underground storages, so they will be told there is no space in the system. When Gazprom has problems with balancing supply and demand, independents get hit," said Mazalov, who has the shares of Gazprom and oil firm LUKOIL in his portfolio but does not hold Novatek.

Russian law prevents independent firms from selling their gas overseas.

Novatek, in which Gazprom controls a stake of almost 20 percent, was forced to cut production by a fifth two years ago when Gazprom said a mild winter had left it with full reserves.

Analysts believe a repetition would again put the share prices of independent producers under pressure.

Novatek officials were not immediately available to comment.

"Gazprom always believes it needs money more than anybody else. So it could simply grab a bigger share of the domestic market from independent producers," said Mikhail Korchemkin from Pennsylvania-based think tank East European Gas Analysis.

FLEXIBLE PRODUCTION PROFILE

Gazprom says it is able to stockpile large volumes of gas and is not saying when problems could spread to its output.

"I don't want to say this because it could give leverage to our Ukrainian friends," Gazprom's deputy chief executive Alexander Medvedev joked during a conference call on Wednesday.

Gennady Shmal, President of the Union of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia, said he believes Gazprom may start feeling the impact of a worsening domestic glut very soon.

"I think we are talking about days here. Apart from storages, you can also stockpile gas in pipelines but some of them are old so you can't increase pressure much," he said.

"So in the end they could start shutting down wells. It is not as bad as in the oil industry, but re-launching a well in Siberia at freezing temperatures is still not easy," he added.

Shmal estimated Gazprom's underground storage capacity at 37-40 billion cubic meters, adding the facilities are usually full in summer and are half empty in winter.

Korchemkin said Gazprom's production profile allowed considerable flexibility and there was no need to shut down wells.

"They produce as much as markets need. In summer they produce 1.25 bcm a day, in winter up to 1.65 bcm per day. So now it is not a problem for them to reduce production by 200 mcm a day," he said.

However, rising stockpiles and persisting export problems will only increase the incentive for Gazprom to grab a bigger share of its home market from independent firms.

The government allowed gas prices inside Russia to rise in 2009, throwing Gazprom a lifeline at a time when falling global energy prices are pushing down its income from gas exports and the economic slowdown is driving down demand in all its markets.

(Reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov; editing by Anthony Barker)