Report: Real High School Grad Rate Hard to Determine

PRINCETON, NJ, Jan 12 (MARKET WIRE) --
Groundbreaking analysis of the Current Population Survey (CPS) finds that
the reported national graduation rates are not accurate, according to a
new report from the Educational Testing Service (ETS) Policy Information
Center.

The analysis finds lower graduation rates and larger gaps between majority
and minority populations than was reported by the Census Bureau and
generally lower rates than reported by individual states.

"Chasing the High School Graduation Rate: Getting the Data We Need and
Using It Right" examines data indicating that a much greater investment is
needed in the national Census Bureau survey showing what percentage of the
population, from different age and sub-groups, has graduated from high
school. In addition, the report specifies the additional data and quality
control needed to enable the National Center for Education Statistics to
make more accurate estimates of state graduation rates. The report was
written by Paul E. Barton, a Senior Associate for the ETS Policy
Information Center.

"Despite the prominence of this issue, we are still unable to produce
statistics that would offer accurate data on the percentage of students
that graduate from high school each year," says Barton. "We are unlikely
to obtain the data needed to address the dropout problem without the
necessary funding to accurately measure graduation rates."

Barton recognizes the major efforts being made in many states, led by the
National Governor's Association, to develop longitudinal student tracking
systems for accountability purposes. But, he says, "We need multiple
measures of high school completion, a single one won't do the job."

Job opportunities have become increasingly scarce for young people
starting their adulthood without a high school diploma. The proportion of
teenagers without a diploma who have jobs has decreased, and the wages of
those who do get jobs has fallen. Beyond the hardship to those who leave
school without a diploma are the consequences for society -- dropouts pay
less in taxes, are more likely to depend on subsidized health care and
public assistance, and are more likely to be incarcerated.

According to Barton, the difficulty in determining the graduation rate
stems from a number of factors including how the information is gathered
by the Census Bureau and how it is reported by the states.

Findings in the report suggest that the following steps be taken to
greatly improve graduation rate estimates:

-- Schools should report the number of students entering the ninth grade
at the beginning of the year, not just total enrollment.
-- States, in addition to reporting enrollments by whether students are
freshmen, sophomores, juniors or seniors, should also report whether they
are first-, second-, third-, fourth-, fifth- or sixth-year students.
-- States should break down the number of diplomas issued each year by
the number of years the student was enrolled in a high school and what the
student has reported about previous enrollment in other high schools.
-- Identify diplomas by type, since more and more types have come into
play.
-- Assure that the data collected on gender, race and ethnicity are of
sufficient quality to disaggregate the estimate.

In 2008, the Census Bureau took a major step forward by transferring
the collection of graduation rates from the CPS to the American Community
Survey (ACS), which includes the prison and military populations and has
greater coverage of the population. However, Barton says, "The single
question they ask now is insufficient, and we need to have the same
reliability for a measure of the graduation rate that we have for the
national unemployment rate."

Barton says, "The ultimate goal here is to help more students graduate and
to create incentives for schools to accomplish this. To do this we need to
be able to accurately measure the rate at regular intervals and apply what
we learn in constructive ways that increase graduation rates."

Download the full report, "Chasing the High School Graduation Rate:
Getting the Data We Need and Using It Right," for free at
www.ets.org/research/pic. Purchase copies for $10.50 (prepaid) by writing
to the Policy Information Center, ETS, MS 19-R, Rosedale Road, Princeton,
NJ 08541-0001; by calling (609) 734-5949; or by sending an e-mail to
pic@ets.org.

About ETS

At nonprofit ETS, we advance quality and equity in education for people
worldwide by creating assessments based on rigorous research. ETS serves
individuals, educational institutions and government agencies by providing
customized solutions for teacher certification, English-language learning,
and elementary, secondary and post-secondary education, as well as
conducting education research, analysis and policy studies. Founded in
1947, ETS develops, administers and scores more than 50 million tests
annually -- including the TOEFL(R) and TOEIC(R) tests, the GRE(R) test and
The Praxis Series(TM) assessments -- in more than 180 countries, at over
9,000 locations worldwide. www.ets.org

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