Race for U.N. nuclear watchdog helm may stall

VIENNA (Reuters) - A two-way race to succeed U.N. nuclear watchdog director-general Mohamed ElBaradei could snag in an inconclusive vote next month, throwing open the field to compromise candidates, diplomats say.

The transition comes at a time of a potentially great diplomatic opening that could aid the IAEA's non-proliferation mission. New U.S. President Barack Obama has signaled a readiness for direct talks with Iran on nuclear and other long frozen disputes after decades of unproductive mutual hostility.

Japan's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency is believed to have a solid lead over his rival, South Africa's chief delegate, but appears to have stalled short of the 2/3 majority required for election, according to informal soundings taken by diplomats on the IAEA's 35-nation Board of Governors.

Neither Yukiya Amano of Japan nor Abdul Samad Minty of South Africa are viewed as ideal candidates transcending divisions between industrialized and developing nations on the Board.

Diplomats say Western missions want an IAEA chief less politically charged than ElBaradei, sticking more to executing the IAEA's technical mandate of inspections to detect and deter proliferators and to foster peaceful uses of the atom.

Developing nations want an IAEA helmsman who, as ElBaradei has done, would also raise awareness that nuclear disarmament by big powers and improved sharing of atomic energy for development goals are priorities just as important as non-proliferation.

Some missions would prefer to see the nominating process reopened, diplomats told Reuters, and this would happen if a secret ballot, likely to be held at a special Board meeting on March 26, yields no winning margin.

A new IAEA director must be chosen by June at the latest, to be endorsed by all 145 IAEA member states in September.

Many want a decision sooner rather than later.

Under ElBaradei, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate in 2005, the once obscure IAEA became headline news probing alleged nuclear weapons work in Saddam Hussein's Iraq and in Iran, while North Korea ejected its inspectors and set off a nuclear device.

ElBaradei, who also skirmished with hawks in former president George W. Bush's administration over what he considered their warlike approach to Iran, is to leave office in November after 12 years spanning three terms.

STYLE AND SUBSTANCE

Amano, 62, and Minty, 69, both have profound experience in non-proliferation and disarmament posts and negotiations.

But some diplomats say that Amano is regarded as neither a superior communicator nor an inspirer, and he is seen as being aligned with big nuclear powers.

Minty, a former anti-apartheid activist, is a skilled, articulate mediator with charisma. But, in Western eyes, he is too close to developing nation positions on nuclear issues and could become another politically outspoken IAEA director like ElBaradei.

"Amano would be a safe pair of hands on the agency while Minty could take a more political role," said a European diplomat who like others requested anonymity due to political sensitivities.

"But there isn't a lot of enthusiasm for either," he said.

Amano, who has lobbied hard for the job around the world for six months, appears "stuck" at 18-19 Board votes, largely Western and Asian nations, while Minty, who started only some weeks ago, has less than 10, largely from the developing world, according to diplomats on both sides contacted by Reuters.

Up to 10-12 governors have indicated they remain undecided during consultations that Algeria, current chairman of the IAEA's policy-making body, has been conducting, they say.

As a result, a vote initially envisaged to be held at the Board's regular March 2-6 meeting is no longer anticipated.

"A composite of Amano and Minty would be excellent but it can't happen now. Many people here are waiting or hoping for third candidates to come out," another European diplomat.

"I think this is heading for a deadlock and we may need a new slate," a senior developing nation diplomat said.

Among names that have been mooted as possible compromise nominees are Rogelio Pfirter, head of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and a seasoned ex-nuclear treaty negotiator; atomic test ban treaty organization chief Tibor Toth; Milenko Skoknic, Chile's IAEA envoy and a previous Board chairman; and Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere.

With his current backing, Amano could still win if a batch of missions abstain, since the 2/3 majority is based on those "expressing a preference," not the entire membership.

But many abstentions are unlikely. Board members want an overwhelming if not consensus victory by one candidate since an IAEA director must enjoy strong rapport with the Board as a whole to avoid political splits damaging to the mandate.

(Editing by Janet McBride)