Point Carbon Finds RGGI Long by 31.8 Million Allowances in 2008

Wed Mar 11, 2009 11:13am EDT

* Reuters is not responsible for the content in this press release.

2008 CO2 Emissions Decline 8.9 percent from 2007 Emissions
WASHINGTON--(Business Wire)--
Today, Point Carbon announced its estimates for the 2008 carbon dioxide (CO2)
emission levels for the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) to be 156.2
million short tons (one short ton is equal to 0.91 metric tons) resulting in a
decline of 8.9 percent from 2007 emissions. This leads Point Carbon`s team of
analysts to forecast an over allocated RGGI market. 

Point Carbon is a world-leading provider of independent analysis and consulting
services for power, gas and carbon markets. The forecasts supplied are part of
the company`s independent Trading Analytics and Research division, which
regularly monitors and forecasts market movements. 

"These results would leave RGGI long by 31.8 million allowances if emissions
remain stable in 2009," said Emilie Mazzacurati, Manager of Carbon Market
Research North America at Point Carbon. 

The RGGI is a cooperative effort by ten Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states to
limit greenhouse gas emissions. RGGI is the first mandatory, market-based CO2
emissions reduction program in the United States and 2009 will be the first
compliance year for the market. 

The analysis relies upon CO2 emission data for power plants in the region,
collected by the Environmental Protection Agency. RGGI publishes historical
emission data up to 2007, but is yet to release the 2008 numbers. 

Point Carbon noted that while some RGGI member states will experience a slight
increase from 2007 to 2008 estimates, six of the ten states will have seen their
CO2 emissions decline by 5-17 percent. These states are Connecticut, Delaware,
Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey and New York. 

High oil prices and the economic recession are cited as the main causes for a
net reduction in CO2 emissions for the region. On the supply side, high oil
prices favor the use of natural gas for electricity generation. Decreased
consumption and economic output have caused a decrease in the demand for power

However, the firm notes that large-scale decline in generation could also
reflect the cumulative effect of energy efficiency programs that state
authorities and utilities have implemented in the region over the past decade. 

"In the short term, RGGI is reaching its goal of achieving a reduction of
emissions beneath its target cap," remarked Mazzacurati. "Regardless, the high
amount of activity in the primary and secondary markets reflects an overall
bullish sentiment on carbon." 

About Point Carbon

Point Carbon is a world-leading provider of independent news, analysis and
consulting services for European and global power, gas and carbon markets. Point
Carbon`s comprehensive services provide professionals with market-moving
information through monitoring fundamental information, key market players, and
business and policy developments.

North America
Intermarket Communications
Jenna Agins, +1-212-745-5613
Candida Jones, +44 (0) 777 5754 763
PR Manager

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