UPDATE 2-Global company bonds at default risk rise to record

Wed Mar 18, 2009 9:46am EDT

(Adds US default forecast, loan details in final paragraphs)

NEW YORK, March 18 (Reuters) - Global corporate bond issuers at risk of default climbed to a record high of 298, affecting $526 billion in debt, Standard & Poor's said on Wednesday.

The number of those bonds considered at risk of default increased for 13 straight months, S&P data through March 11 showed. Industries in media and entertainment, forest products and building materials, and retail and restaurants were the most vulnerable, S&P said.

The rating company also said the global high-yield default rate rose to 4.3 percent in February from 3.9 percent in January.

The U.S. speculative-grade corporate default rate climbed to 4.9 percent in February, from 4.7 percent in January, S&P said, according to 12-month trailing default data.

S&P forecasts that the U.S. default rate may rise to a record 13.9 percent in the next 12 months.

"Corporate defaults continue to rise rapidly in 2009," analyst Diane Vazza, co-wrote in the report.

So far this year through March 11, 39 issuers have defaulted, affecting debt worth $44 billion. That figure is about one-third of the 126 defaults recorded in all of 2008, affecting debt worth $433 billion.

Only 22 issuers defaulted in 2007 and 30 in 2006. Of the 39 defaults so far in 2009, 28 are from the United States, five are from emerging markets, two are from Canada, and one each is from France, Germany, Australia and Japan.

The United States also leads in the number of "weakest links," with 225 of the 298 entities, or 76 percent. Weak links are defined as issuers rated "B-minus," six levels below investment-grade, with either a negative outlook or on watch for a possible cut.

For U.S. leveraged loans, the 12-month-trailing default rate increased to a 75-month high of 4.5 percent in February 2009 up from 4.2 percent in January 2009 and 1.5 percent 12 months earlier, according to S&P's Leveraged Commentary and Data group.

The leveraged loan default rate has increased markedly in recent months, exceeding the historical average of 3.12 percent, S&P said. (Reporting by Walden Siew; Editing by Walker Simon)

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