AJM Petroleum Consultants: Commodity Price Recovery Anticipated Into 2010
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CALGARY, ALBERTA, Apr 07 (MARKET WIRE) --
Recent declines in the capital expenditures required to develop oil and
natural gas will help drive commodity market prices up predicts AJM
Petroleum Consultants in their current oil and gas price forecast,
established effective March 31, 2009.
"Some analysts believe world oil production peaked in 2008, but
regardless of whether or not you agree, it is generally accepted that the
world's supply of hydrocarbons is declining," said Ralph Glass, economist
and Vice President of Operations at AJM Petroleum Consultants. "The
current decrease in investment for oilsands projects and natural gas
drilling projects will have the inevitable impact of less production
coming on-stream. Less production will lower gas supply levels, and the
resulting difference between supply and demand will force prices up."
Reduced drilling over the past two years in Canada's natural gas sector
has caused approximately 1 Bcf/d of production to fall off the market
and, with the first quarter of 2009 seeing an even higher drop in rig
counts, Mr. Glass anticipates even sharper declines in drilling. While
the United States saw a dramatic increase in gas supply levels in the
latter part of 2008 due to high levels of drilling in shale gas plays,
declines in drilling activity in 2009 will lead to just as dramatic
production declines. This drop in supply will ultimately force natural
gas prices to rise.
AJM's current price forecast shows crude oil prices in constant dollars
based on a WTI forecast of US$55.00/bbl for 2009, rising to US$70.00/bbl
in 2010, then reaching US$100.00/bbl by 2016 and holding at this level
for the balance of the forecast. The AECO US NYMEX natural gas price in
constant dollars is expected to average US$4.50/Mcf in 2009, rising with
oil to a long-term price in 2016 of US$9.00/Mcf. The Canadian priced AECO
forecast is expected to average Cdn$4.50/Mcf in 2009 rising to
Cdn$8.50/Mcf in 2016, corresponding with the expected recovery of the
Canadian dollar over the same period. When compared with the forecast
prepared by AJM at December 31, 2008, this current forecast features
natural gas price predictions that reflect a drop of $1 - $2/Mcf until
2016. Complete forecast tables, commentary and documentation for AJM's
March 31 Price Forecast are available for download on the AJM Petroleum
Consultants website at www.ajmpetroleumconsultants.com.
AJM Petroleum Consultants, a privately owned Calgary-based company, has
extensive experience in exploration prospect reviews, basin evaluation
studies, and reserve evaluations including evaluations of the
unconventional reserves and resources of tight gas, shale gas, coalbed
methane, bitumen and heavy oil. With a staff of more than 60 engineers,
geologists and technicians, AJM consults for clients including active oil
and gas exploration and production companies, natural gas transmission
companies, regulatory bodies, financial houses, banks and investment
analysts in Western Canada, North America and around the world.
Contacts:
AJM Petroleum Consultants
Andrea Conway
Office: (403) 648-3269 or Mobile: (403) 561-8620
Website: www.ajmpetroleumconsultants.com
Copyright 2009, Market Wire, All rights reserved.
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