The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for the U.S. Declines Again

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for the U.S. Declines
Again

NEW YORK, April 20 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index(TM) (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.3 percent in March, following a 0.2
percent decrease in February, and a 0.2 percent decline in January.

Says Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board: "The recession may
continue through the summer, but the intensity will ease. There have been some
intermittent signs of improvement in the economy in April, but the leading
economic index and most of its components are still pointing down."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) for the U.S. declined
0.4 percent in March, following a 0.6 percent decline in February, and a 0.9
percent decline in January. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index(TM)
(LAG) declined 0.4 percent in March, following a 0.3 percent decline in
February, and a 0.2 percent decline in January.

-- The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. declined again in March, and the
index has not risen in the past nine months. Building permits, stock
prices, and the index of supplier deliveries made large negative
contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting continued
positive contributions from real money supply and the yield spread. In
the six months through March, the index fell 2.5 percent (about a -4.9
percent annual rate), faster than the decrease of 1.4 percent (a -2.7
percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the
weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained widespread in
recent months.

-- The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. continued falling in March,
driven
by further declines in employment and industrial production. In the
six
months through March, the index decreased 3.0 percent (about a -5.8
percent annual rate), faster than the decline of 2.0 percent (a -3.9
percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In March, the
lagging
economic index for the U.S. fell by the same amount as the coincident
economic index, and as a result, the coincident to lagging ratio
remained unchanged. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at an average
annual
rate of 3.5 percent in the second half of 2008 (including a decline of
6.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter).

-- The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. remains on a general downtrend
that began in July 2007, with widespread weaknesses among its
components. However, its rate of decline has moderated somewhat this
year. The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. has been on a declining
trend since November 2007, although it has also decreased at a
modestly
slower pace in recent months. All in all, the behavior of the
composite
economic indexes suggests that the economic recession that started in
December 2007 will continue in the near term, but that the contraction
in activity could become less severe in upcoming months.

LEADING INDICATORS
Three of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S.
increased in March. The positive contributors - beginning with the largest
positive contributor - were real money supply*, interest rate spread, and the
index of consumer expectations. The negative contributors - beginning with
the largest negative contributor - were building permits, stock prices, index
of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), average weekly manufacturing
hours, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted),
and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods*. Manufacturers'
new orders for consumer goods and materials* held steady in March.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. now stands at 98.1 (2004=100). Based on
revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in February and decreased 0.2
percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the leading
economic index decreased 2.5 percent, with two out of ten components advancing
(diffusion index, six-month span equals 20 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Two of the four indicators that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.S.
increased in March. The positive contributors to the index - beginning with
the largest positive contributor - were personal income less transfer
payments* and manufacturing and trade sales*. The negative contributors -
beginning with the largest negative contributor - were employees on
nonagricultural payrolls and industrial production.

The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. now stands at 101.5 (2004=100). This
index decreased 0.6 percent in February and decreased 0.9 percent in January.
During the six-month period through March, the coincident economic index
decreased 3.0 percent, with none of the four components advancing (diffusion
index, six-month span equals 0 percent).

LAGGING INDICATORS
The Conference Board LAG for the U.S. stands at 113.3 (2004=100) in March,
with one of the seven components advancing. The positive contributor to the
index was the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income*. The
negative contributors - beginning with the largest negative contributor - were
commercial and industrial loans outstanding*, change in labor cost per unit of
output*, and average duration of unemployment (inverted). The average prime
rate charged by banks, ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales*
and change in CPI for services* held steady in March. Based on revised data,
the lagging economic index decreased 0.3 percent in February and decreased 0.2
percent in January.

DATA AVAILABILITY AND NOTES
The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index(TM) (LEI) for the U.S., The Conference Board Coincident Economic
Index(TM) (CEI) for the U.S. and The Conference Board Lagging Economic
Index(TM) (LAG) for the U.S. are those available "as of" 5 pm on April 16,
2009. Some series are estimated as noted below.

* Series in The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. based on our estimates are
manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials, manufacturers' new
orders for nondefense capital goods, and the personal consumption expenditure
used to deflate the money supply. Series in The Conference Board CEI for the
U.S. that are based on our estimates are personal income less transfer
payments and manufacturing and trade sales. Series in The Conference Board LAG
for the U.S. that are based on our estimates are inventories to sales ratio,
consumer installment credit to income ratio, change in labor cost per unit of
output, and the personal consumption expenditure used to deflate commercial
and industrial loans outstanding.

The procedure used to estimate the current month's personal consumption
expenditure deflator (used in the calculation of real money supply and
commercial and industrial loans outstanding) now incorporates the current
month's consumer price index when it is available before the release of The
Conference Board LEI for the U.S.

The Conference Board
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SOURCE The Conference Board

Indicators Program: +1-212-339-0330, indicators@conference-board.org, Frank
Tortorici, +1-212-339-0231, Carol Courter, +1-212-339-0232,
courter@conference-board.org, or Ken Goldstein, +1-212-339-0331,
Ken.goldstein@conference-board.org