FACTBOX: Flu could boost drug makers, hit tourism and trade

(Reuters) - An outbreak of swine flu, which has killed up to 81 people in Mexico and infected others in the United States, Canada, Europe and New Zealand, could have a significant economic impact:

* The World Bank estimated in 2008, before the current global recession, that a flu pandemic could cost $3 trillion and result in a nearly 5 percent drop in world gross domestic product.

* The travel and tourism industries could be severely affected. Travelers may cancel trips and flights and many businesses have plans to limit travel if a pandemic starts.

* The Air Transport Association, an airline trade group, said so far there had been no decision to restrict travel between the United States and Mexico. WHO advises countries that restricting flights would be futile once a disease has started spreading. The U.S. Commerce Department says about 5.9 million U.S. citizens flew to Mexico in 2008.

* Pork producers in the United States and Mexico could see a drop in sales, but there is no evidence that any of the flu cases stemmed from contact with pigs. Prices for hogs fell on Friday to a two-month low in the United States. Mexico is the No. 2 market for U.S. pork, valued at $691.28 million. Russia said it had imposed curbs on meat imports from Mexico and the United Arab Emirates said it was considering banning imports of all pork products from Mexico and the United States.

* Some drug makers may benefit. Roche Holding AG's and Gilead Sciences Inc.'s Tamiflu and GlaxoSmithKline Plc's and Biota's Relenza are both recommended drugs for seasonal flu and have been shown to work against the new disease. Tamiflu is expected to be in greatest demand in a pandemic as it is a pill. Relenza must be inhaled.

* Leading flu vaccine manufacturers, including Sanofi Pasteur, the vaccines division of Sanofi-Aventis SA, Glaxo, Novartis AG and Baxter International Inc, said they were on standby to start the development of a vaccine, which could take months to prepare.

* Oil prices, already depressed by the global recession, could fall further if the outbreak hurts travel and economic activity.

(Writing by Eric Beech)

(For full coverage of the flu outbreak, click on [nFLU])