The Conference Board(R) Mexico Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for Mexico and Related
Composite Economic Indexes for February 2009

NEW YORK, April 29 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index(TM) (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.5 percent and The Conference Board
Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) for Mexico decreased 0.9 percent in
February.
-- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico declined again in February due to
negative contributions from the real exchange rate (inverted) and the
stock price index -- offsetting positive contributions from net
insufficient inventories and oil prices. During the previous six
months,
the leading economic index declined 17.3 percent (a -31.6 percent
annual
rate), which is well below the 2.2 percent increase (a 4.5 percent
annual rate) between February and August 2008. In addition, the
weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained widespread in
recent months.
-- The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic
activity, also declined again in February. Between August 2008 and
February 2009, the coincident economic index declined 5.2 percent (a
-10.1 percent annual rate), faster than the decline of 0.9 percent (a
-1.8 percent annual rate) during the previous six-month period. In
addition, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained
very widespread, with none of the components increasing over the past
six months. Meanwhile, real GDP contracted at an average annual rate
of
4.5 percent in the second half of 2008 (including a decline of 10.3
percent annual rate in the fourth quarter), its sharpest decline since
the 1994-95 economic downturn.

-- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico has declined precipitously since
its
most recent peak in April 2008, falling by 18.4 percent during this
period. Furthermore, the pace of the six-month decline has accelerated
in recent months. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for
Mexico
has been falling since June 2008, and its decrease over the past six
months is the largest since 1995. Taken together, the recent behavior
of
the composite economic indexes suggests that the contraction in
economic
activity is unlikely to end soon and that economic conditions could
deteriorate further in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up The Conference
Board LEI for Mexico increased in February. The positive contributors to the
index -- from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one -- are net
insufficient inventories, the US refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and
imported crude oil, and the (inverted) federal funds rate. The (inverted)
real exchange rate, stock prices, and the industrial production construction
component decreased in February.

With the 0.5 percent decrease in February, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico
now stands at 99.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 1.8
percent in January and declined 3.2 percent in December. During the six-month
span through February, the index decreased 17.3 percent, with one of the six
components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 16.7 percent).

*See notes under data availability.

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. None of the three components that make up The
Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in February. Industrial production,
number of people employed (measured by total IMSS beneficiaries), and retail
sales declined in February.

With the decrease of 0.9 percent in February, The Conference Board CEI for
Mexico now stands at 106.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index
decreased 1.6 percent in January and decreased 1.6 percent in December.
During the six-month span through February, the index decreased 5.2 percent,
with none of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span
equals 0.0 percent).

*See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute The
Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for Mexico and The
Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) for Mexico reported in
this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M.April 27, 2009. Some series
are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: With this month's release, none of the components in The Conference
Board LEI for Mexico or The Conference Board CEI for Mexico were based on our
estimates.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes

2008 2009 6-month
Dec Jan Feb Aug. to Feb
Leading index 101.6 r 99.8 r 99.3
Percent Change -3.2 r -1.8 r -0.5 -17.3
Diffusion 25.0 r 16.7 50.0 16.7

Coincident Index 109.2 r 107.4 106.4
Percent Change -1.6 r -1.6 r -0.9 -5.2
Diffusion .0 .0 .0 0.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved

The next release is scheduled for Friday, May 29, 2009 at 11:00 A.M. (ET)

In Mexico -Friday, May 29, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. (CST)

Website: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/

SOURCE The Conference Board

Indicator Program, +1-212-339-0330; or Frank Tortorici, +1-212-339-0231, or
Carol Courter, +1-212-339-0232