FACTBOX: What will replace GM if it leaves the Dow?

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The possibility that General Motors will be the first company in 27 years to be removed from the Dow Jones industrials as a result of a bankruptcy has become more likely in recent weeks.

With that in mind, the automaker would have to be replaced in the 30-stock Dow Jones industrial average. But which company will be added to the 103-year-old average if GM is jettisoned?

Analysts do not agree on the size and sector of the company that would replace GM in the Dow, but history suggests that the new entry will not be an obscurity.

"I'd expect the replacement to be a big, large, recognizable name that people are comfortable with," said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners.

There are several directions the average could go in, ranging from well-known tech names like Apple or Cisco, to GM's rival, Ford.

If GM does go bankrupt, the company would be removed from the average, said John Prestbo, executive director of Dow Jones Indexes and the chairman of the DJI oversight committee.

It would be the first Dow stock to be kicked out of the Dow for going bankrupt since the removal of Manville Corp on August 30, 1982. Manville made asbestos products and was sued by ill workers and families. American Express was its replacement.

Following is a list of possible entries into the Dow industrials as discussed with various market analysts:

AETNA INC

Share price: $26.47 Market Cap: $118.5 bln

Prestbo said recently that the insurance industry is currently not represented on the Dow after American International Group's removal last September. However, overhauls to the U.S. healthcare industry make such an addition problematic.

APPLE INC

Share price: $122.74 Market Cap: $106.6 bln

Is there a more ubiquitous name in both the market and in the consumer sector right now? Apple remains a highly regarded brand and after stumbling earlier in its history, has become an earnings powerhouse. It straddles the consumer-discretionary and technology sectors, but tech is already well represented with IBM, Microsoft, Intel and Hewlett-Packard.

CISCO SYSTEMS

Share price: $18.24 Market Cap: $105.4 bln

The networking giant has been a consistent earner and a bellwether in the technology sector and investors often look to CEO John Chambers for his outlook on the economy. The tech sector is well-represented and such a move might necessitate removing another tech stock.

FORD MOTOR CO

Share price: $5.31 Market Cap: $14.3 bln

The obvious candidate to replace GM is Ford, the only U.S. carmaker not accepting government money, according to James Bianco, CEO of Bianco Research in Chicago. However, he said Ford shares break the "unwritten rule" of being under $10. While that is not a hard-and-fast rule, as several Dow components currently trade at less than $10, DJ Indexes might be reluctant to add a stock with so low a price.

GOLDMAN SACHS

Share price: $133.46 Market Cap: $65.1 bln

One of the most robust U.S. financial institutions. However, the earnings potential in investment banking is under scrutiny, and now that the company has become a bank holding company, it would be adding to a crowded sector in the Dow, one that already includes Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup.

GOOGLE INC

Share price: $390.38 Market Cap: $123.1 bln

A popular possibility, but Google's price is almost four times the one of the index's costliest current component, and the Dow is a price-weighted index. It also has a short history as a company.

NIKE INC

Share price: $51.00 Market Cap: $24 bln

Nike could be a pick as it is "an interesting worldwide recognizable name" according to Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners. It would fit the DJ penchant for adding unexpected names (such as Kraft), and it is a well-known brand worldwide, but has a small market cap. There are also no apparel companies in the index.

NUCOR

Share price: $39.30 Market Cap: $12.4 bln

After GM, Alcoa ranks last in market capitalization. If DJ Indexes elects to overhaul the average, perhaps by eliminating GM, Citigroup and Alcoa, the steelmaker could be a strong candidate from the basic materials sector. But the company is small, sporting a smaller market cap than even Ford.

THE TRAVELERS CO

Share price: $39.67 Market Cap: $22.8 bln

This company was already listed in the index before it was purchased by Citigroup. It could be a late replacement for AIG, after the insurer was replaced by Kraft Foods last September.

WELLS FARGO

Share price: $25.41 Market Cap: $113.9 bln

There is something to be said for surviving the financial meltdown, and Wells is now one of the largest financials, surpassing Citigroup and Bank of America in market cap. But it is unlikely to be added unless one of the banks is removed.