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Q+A: The end of Sri Lanka's war and beyond

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COLOMBO | Mon May 18, 2009 11:22am EDT

COLOMBO (Reuters) - Sri Lanka declared total victory on Monday in a 25-year civil war after crushing the last resistance put up by the separatist Tamil Tigers and killing leader Vellupillai Prabhakaran.

Here are questions and answers about what may happen next:

IS THIS THE END FOR THE TAMIL TIGERS?

As a conventional force, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) are done. But as a guerrilla force, they will have a residual presence. The Tigers still have a wide international network of operatives and a deep well of support from the global Tamil diaspora. The LTTE's diplomatic pointman, Selvarajah Pathmanathan, this week threatened a new phase of war if the Tigers were wiped out. Since he was better known for most of his career as "KP," the LTTE's chief weapons smuggler and offshore financier wanted by Interpol, he has the practical experience to make good on his threat. The military says it is ready for any kind of guerrilla attacks, and security analysts point out the LTTE will no longer have its own turf in Sri Lanka from which to operate. Few, however, doubt that the LTTE will try to carry out suicide bombings, as it has done after past losses.

WILL THE END OF THE WAR HELP THE ECONOMY?

It already has. The rupee currency and Colombo Stock Exchange both jumped on Monday after the military declared the fighting over. Greater stability, and a period without guerrilla attacks, should help a tourism sector that has been barely squeaking along. But Sri Lanka is facing several economic challenges. It has sought a $1.9 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan to boost foreign exchange reserves hovering around six weeks of import cover, and meet a balance of payments deficit. The global economy's woeful state hasn't helped either, since import costs are up and export receipts for tea and garments are down. But interest rates and inflation have come down, which has given hope to businessmen eager to make new investments and bring in foreign partners.

WILL THE IMF LOAN BE BLOCKED?

Although Washington has raised this as a possibility to pressure Sri Lanka's government, IMF director Dominique Strauss-Kahn's comments on Friday seemed to suggest it would come through soon. The United States could block the loan, but diplomats say this is unlikely and the U.N. Security Council has said it views using the loan to punish Colombo as unnecessary.

WHAT ABOUT POST-WAR POLITICS?

Two things are fairly certain. One is President Mahinda Rajapaksa's plan to call elections in the formerly rebel-held areas as soon as possible, part of his plan to devolve some political powers to the Tamil majority areas. Presidential allies say that it is also likely that Rajapaksa will go for a presidential election later this year, to capitalize on the war victory to cement another term. The opposition right now is in disarray, so his prospects appear bright.

WAR CRIMES INQUIRIES?

The European Union on Monday called for an independent probe into human rights violations in the war. The U.N. rights chief has backed calls from Britain for a similar inquiry. Diplomats have in the past said this is unlikely to happen, given that China and Russia are sympathetic to Sri Lanka's fight against separatists. That is something both are dealing with, in Tibet and Chechnya, respectively. Diplomats said it remains to be seen what will happen now that the war is declared over.

(Editing by Paul Tait)

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