The Conference Board(R) Germany Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for Germany and Related
Composite Economic Indexes for March 2009

BRUSSELS, May 19 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index(TM) (LEI) for Germany declined 1.1 percent and The Conference Board
Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) decreased 0.4 percent in March.

-- The Conference Board LEI for Germany declined again in March as
negative
contributions by stock prices, new orders in investment goods
industries, new residential construction orders* and consumer
confidence
more than offset a positive contribution from the yield spread.
Between
September 2008 and March 2009, the leading economic index declined by
12.6 percent (about a -23.6 percent annual rate), faster than the 4.8
percent decline (about a -9.4 percent annual rate) between March and
September 2008. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading
indicators have remained widespread in recent months.

-- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic
activity, also continued to fall in March as a result of declines in
manufacturing sales, employment and retail trade. Between September
2008 and March 2009, the coincident economic index decreased by 3.9
percent (about a -7.6 percent annual rate), after remaining unchanged
during the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among
the
coincident indicators have become very widespread, with all four
components decreasing during the past six months. At the same time,
real GDP declined at an average annual rate of 11.5 percent during the
fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009 (including a 14.4
percent annual rate of contraction during the first quarter), its
largest two-quarter contraction since 1960.

-- The Conference Board LEI for Germany has been generally falling since
July 2007 and the rapid pace of this decline has remained stable in
recent months, with the six-month change in the index remaining near
the
lowest level in its 44-year history. Correspondingly, The Conference
Board CEI for Germany has been declining since September 2008, and is
currently experiencing its steepest contraction ever. Taken
together,
the persistent and rapid declines in the composite economic indexes
suggest that the downturn is unlikely to end soon and that the
contraction in economic activity may remain deep in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI
for Germany increased in March. The positive contributors - in order from the
largest positive contributor to the smallest - are the yield spread and
inventory change series*. Negative contributors - in order from largest to
smallest - are stock prices, new orders in investment goods industries, new
residential construction orders*, consumer confidence and gross enterprises
and properties income*.

With the 1.1 percent decrease in March, The Conference Board LEI for Germany
now stands at 86.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 2.0
percent in February and declined 2.4 percent in January. During the six-month
span through March, the index decreased 12.6 percent, with two of the seven
components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 28.6 percent).

*See notes under data availability

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. None of the four components that make up The
Conference Board CEI for Germany increased in March. Manufacturing sales,
employed persons, and retail trade declined in March while industrial
production remained unchanged.

With the 0.4 percent decrease in March, The Conference Board CEI for Germany
now stands at 101.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased
0.6 percent in February and decreased 1.3 percent in January. During the
six-month period through March, the index decreased 3.9 percent, with none of
the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0
percent).

* See notes under data availability.

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business-membership and research
association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide
the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to
improve their performance AND better serve society. The Conference Board is a
non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in
the United States.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes

2009 6-month
Jan Feb Mar Sep to Mar

Leading Economic Index (LEI) 89.4 p 87.6 p 86.6 p
Percent Change -2.4 p -2.0 p -1.1 p -12.6 p
Diffusion 28.6 28.6 21.4 28.6

Coincident Economic Index (CEI) 102.4 r 101.8 r 101.4 p
Percent Change -1.3 -0.6 -0.4 p -3.9 p
Diffusion 0.0 25.0 12.5 0.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci

The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, June 24, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. CET
(4:00 A.M. ET)

SOURCE The Conference Board

The Conference Board Europe, +32-2-675-5405, indicators@conference-board.org