More Retailers Forecasting Better Sales

LANSING, MI, May 27 (MARKET WIRE) --
If only current sales matched retailers' rising projections.

Michigan retailers' short-term forecasts rose in April for the fifth month
in a row, but the number of retailers posting better sales fell for the
second consecutive month, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint
project of Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve
Bank of Chicago.

"Retailers know there is a lot of pent-up consumer demand out there, which
could be a big part of the industry's brightened outlook," said James P.
Hallan, MRA president and CEO. "There's also a feeling that the overall
economy is stabilizing and could lead to improved sales in the near
future."

"However, April's numbers serve as a strong reminder that many economic
problems persist, consumers are hesitant and that we still have a long way
to go," he added.

Nationally, retail sales also fell in April for the second consecutive
month, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

The Michigan Retail Index survey for April found that 27 percent of
retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 58 percent
recorded declines and 15 percent saw no change. The results create a
seasonally adjusted performance index of 32.8, down from 39.4 in March and
40.8 in February.

Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in positive activity,
while values below 50 indicate a decrease.

Looking ahead, 39 percent of retailers said they expect higher sales
during May - July over the same period last year, while 34 percent
project a decrease and 27 percent no change. That puts the seasonally
adjusted outlook index at 52.2, up from 47.8 in March, 44.6 in February
and 41.6 in January. It was the most positive outlook since 53.4 last
August.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.

Michigan Retail Index
April 2009 results
Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at
www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html

April Performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory,
prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate March results)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses
Sales 27 (31) 58 (55) 15 (14) 32.8 (39.4) 119 (135)
Inventory 17 (14) 41 (51) 42 (35) 36.8 (30.0) 117 (134)
Prices 22 (29) 10 (16) 68 (55) 54.1 (56.7) 118 (135)
Promotions 39 (36) 5 (10) 56 (54) 64.9 (62.9) 118 (135)
Hiring 8 ( 8) 21 (24) 71 (68) 44.1 (42.6) 116 (132)

Outlook for Next 3 Months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory,
prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate March results)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses
Sales 39 (39) 34 (36) 27 (25) 52.2 (47.8) 119 (136)
Inventory 21 (23) 34 (39) 45 (38) 43.3 (39.0) 116 (133)
Prices 26 (29) 7 ( 8) 67 (63) 60.2 (59.0) 118 (133)
Promotions 48 (45) 3 ( 8) 49 (47) 75.0 (65.9) 118 (135)
Hiring 15 ( 7) 15 (19) 70 (74) 49.1 (41.8) 118 (133)

April Sales Performance & Outlook for Next 3 Months, by Region
(the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in
parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months.)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change
North 27 (37) 55 (36) 18 (27)
West 19 (56) 62 (28) 19 (16)
Central 25 (38) 62 (31) 13 (31)
East 63 (25) 37 (25) 0 (50)
Southeast 24 (30) 60 (40) 16 (30)

*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the
sum of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent
indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the
U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values
above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50
indicate a decrease.

Contact:
Tom Scott
517.372.5656
Email Contact

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