Q+A: North Korea: the key global nuclear proliferation risk

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - North Korea's nuclear test this week, and reports it has restarted a plant that makes weapons-grade plutonium, have raised fears of further proliferation that could seriously destabilize global security.

WHAT IS NORTH KOREA'S ROLE IN NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION? Weapons exports are a key source of revenue for North Korea's ramshackle economy, and a means through which Pyongyang cements its ties with other "rogue states" hostile to the West.

What makes the country such a proliferation threat is that it is willing -- indeed, eager -- to sell its weapons technology, materials and know-how to the highest bidders.

And its nuclear test, the country's second, will have sparked the interest of many potential bidders.

A study by the U.S.-based Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis think tank this year estimates that Pyongyang earns around $1.5 billion a year from missile sales.

North Korean missile technology has already been exported to Pakistan, Libya, Iran, Syria and Egypt.

WHAT COUNTRIES MAY SEEK NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR ASSISTANCE?

Western policymakers are most alarmed by Iran and Syria's desire to boost their nuclear capability. Washington says Pyongyang has already exported missiles and missile technology to Iran and nuclear technology to Syria.

In 2007, Israeli planes bombed a complex of buildings in Syria that Washington later alleged were a covert nuclear reactor being built with North Korean assistance. Syria denied the accusation, but U.N. inspectors found traces of uranium at the site, and Damascus has refused to allow much investigation.

Analysts say it is likely Syria was building a plutonium production reactor with the goal of creating nuclear bombs.

Iran has faced international opposition to its nuclear program, which it insists is for purely peaceful means. Iran has used North Korean technology in some of its missiles, and analysts fear Pyongyang could help it develop nuclear weapons.

There is also a concern that Iran's and Syria's nuclear ambitions may spark an arms race in the Middle East, where only Israel currently has the bomb. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Gulf states may seek nuclear capability to balance the threat from Damascus and Tehran, analysts say.

WHAT ABOUT AN ARMS RACE IN ASIA?

The latest North Korean test may increase calls in Japan and South Korea to have their own nuclear deterrent rather than relying on the U.S. security umbrella. But analysts say it is very unlikely that these countries would risk Washington's displeasure by developing nuclear bombs, although they may well beef up their conventional missile capabilities.

Another risk is that an existing nuclear power uses Pyongyang's test as an excuse to conduct another test of its own. Most worryingly, a Pakistani nuclear test would further inflame tensions with India and increase instability in South Asia.

COULD MILITANT GROUPS ACQUIRE NUCLEAR KNOW-HOW?

The United States says North Korea has already provided conventional weapons technology and training to the Tamil Tigers and Lebanon's Hezbollah. Al Qaeda and related groups are actively seeking nuclear materials and know-how, and analysts say North Korea would be one of their most likely sources.

Pyongyang is unlikely to be fussy who gets their hands on its nuclear material and technology, provided they pay for it, and may well welcome the destabilizing impact on the West of al Qaeda acquiring nuclear technology.

Most analysts say it is unlikely for the moment that al Qaeda or another non-state group could acquire and launch a missile with a nuclear warhead. But it would be far easier to build a so-called "dirty bomb" -- a conventional bomb also packed with radioactive material -- which could cause severe disruption.

HOW CAN PROLIFERATION FROM NORTH KOREA BE CONTAINED?

One lesson from attempts to curb Pyongyang's nuclear program is that sanctions and threats have little effect, or only encourage North Korean defiance. Many analysts say the fact North Korea's defiance and brinkmanship have not brought a decisive response may embolden other would-be nuclear powers.

The United States has also created the Proliferation Security Initiative, an alliance of countries which cooperate to stop suspect ships and planes to curb the spread of nuclear technology and other weapons of mass destruction. South Korea joined the PSI on Tuesday, prompting Pyongyang to warn it would respond with force if any of its vessels were searched.

Although the initiative makes it harder to export nuclear technology, policing all sea and air traffic is not feasible, and analysts say proliferation may be impossible to contain.

(Editing by John Chalmers)