TransUnion.com: Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates Rise for Ninth Straight Quarter,...

TransUnion.com: Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates Rise for Ninth Straight
Quarter, but at a Slower Pace

CHICAGO, June 1 /PRNewswire/ -- TransUnion.com released today the results of
its analysis of trends in the mortgage industry for the first quarter of 2009
and the associated impact on the U.S. consumer. The report is part of an
ongoing series of quarterly consumer lending sector analyses focusing on
credit card, auto loan and mortgage data available on TransUnion's Web site.
Information for this analysis is culled quarterly from approximately 27
million anonymous, randomly sampled, individual credit files, providing a
real-life perspective on how U.S. consumers are managing their credit health.

Statistics
Mortgage loan delinquency (the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due)
increased for the ninth straight quarter, hitting a national average high of
5.22 percent for the first quarter of 2009. Traditionally seen as a precursor
to foreclosures, this statistic is up almost 14 percent from the previous
quarter's 4.58 percent average. This compares to an increase of 16 percent
from the third to fourth quarter of 2008. Year-over-year, mortgage loan
delinquency is up approximately 62 percent (from 3.23 percent).

Mortgage borrower delinquency rates in the first quarter of 2009 were highest
in Nevada (11.61 percent) and Florida (11.01 percent), while the lowest
mortgage delinquency rates were found in North Dakota (1.51 percent), South
Dakota (1.94 percent) and Alaska (2.14 percent). The three areas showing the
greatest percentage growth in delinquency from the previous quarter were
Hawaii (+34.4 percent), Oregon (+30.7 percent) and Nevada (+28.9 percent).
However, there were some bright spots: Nebraska and South Dakota both showed a
decline in mortgage delinquency rates, down 4.7 percent and 1.5 percent from
the previous quarter, respectively.

The average national mortgage debt per borrower rose again (1.41 percent) to
$195,500 from the previous quarter's $192,789. On a year-over-year basis, the
first quarter 2009 average represents a 1.87 percent increase compared to the
first quarter 2008 average of $191,917.

The area with the highest average mortgage debt per borrower was still
California at $365,192, followed by the District of Columbia at $360,217 and
Hawaii at $314,269. The lowest average mortgage debt per borrower was in West
Virginia at $97,187. Quarter to quarter, Rhode Island showed the greatest
percent increase in mortgage debt (+5 percent), followed by Ohio (+4.9
percent) and Idaho (+4.5 percent). Areas showing the largest percentage drop
in average mortgage debt were the Illinois (-2.5 percent), Alaska (-2.1
percent) and Iowa (-0.78 percent).

Analysis
"At the end of the 2001 Recession, the national 60-day or worse mortgage
delinquency rate increased to a high of just over 1.4 percent and then dipped
before beginning a longer-term, gradual upward trend," said Keith Carson, a
senior consultant in TransUnion's financial services group. "As the recession
came to a close in November of that year, metropolitan areas in the South were
found to have some of the highest mortgage delinquency rates. In the current
recession, metropolitan areas in Florida and California are leading the pack
in terms of mortgage delinquency: Miami, Fla. (16.39 percent), Fort Myers,
Fla. (15.28 percent), Merced, Calif. (15.24 percent), Stockton, Calif. (13.92
percent), and Naples, Fla. (13.01 percent). Today, the least risky
metropolitan area is Bismarck, N.D. - a position fairly consistent with what
it held during the previous recession."

"The troubling news is that the mortgage delinquency rate continues to climb
upward at an average quarterly pace almost doubling that experienced in the
last recession," continued Carson. "For example, during the 2001 recession
(which began in March and ended in November of the same year), the average
quarter-to-quarter national mortgage delinquency growth rate was nearly 6.5
percent - compared to the nearly 12 percent quarter-to-quarter delinquency
growth we are experiencing today. However, this quarter's results offer a
glimmer of hope and a chance for optimism. For the first time since the
recession began at the end of 2007, the quarterly growth rate for national
mortgage delinquency decreased. On a state basis, for example, Florida's
quarterly growth rate for mortgage delinquency went down from 22 percent in
the fourth quarter of 2008 to almost 16 percent in the first quarter of this
year. While this may sound like trying to make good news out of bad, in fact
it is an indication that we may be currently working our way through the worst
of the recession."

Forecast
"Our national predictions were only 1.6 percent off from the actual
delinquency rate for first quarter 2009. We have adjusted our projections to
reflect data from the most recent quarter, and adopted slightly different
scenarios in consumer confidence and the general economy. These forecasts now
show the 2009 mortgage delinquency rates reaching 7 percent by year end," said
Carson. "Credit performance generally lags economic conditions. Thus although
there have been some pockets of promising news on the economic front, we see
unemployment and deflated housing prices continuing to pushing up delinquency
rates through the remainder of this year. At this juncture it is difficult to
predict with any certainty what impact, if any, the various government
initiatives will have on the mortgage delinquency."

As far as state projections go, Florida is still anticipated to continue to
experience the highest delinquency rate through the end of 2009, reaching as
high as 18 percent by year-end. Likewise, North Dakota is expected to continue
to exhibit the lowest mortgage delinquency rate, reaching a peak in mid 2009
and then declining to just over 1.5 percent by year-end.

(Related Graphs: http://transunion.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=98)
(MP3 File Sound bites: http://transunion.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=102)

TransUnion's Trend Data database
The source of the underlying data used for this analysis is TransUnion's Trend
Data, a one-of-a-kind database consisting of 27 million anonymous consumer
records randomly sampled every quarter from TransUnion's national consumer
credit database. Each record contains more than 200 credit variables that
illustrate consumer credit usage and performance. Since 1992, TransUnion has
been aggregating this information at the county, Metropolitan Statistical Area
(MSA), state and national levels.

About TransUnion
As a global leader in credit and information management, TransUnion creates
advantages for millions of people around the world by gathering, analyzing and
delivering information. For businesses, TransUnion helps improve efficiency,
manage risk, reduce costs and increase revenue by delivering comprehensive
data and advanced analytics and decisioning. For consumers, TransUnion
provides the tools, resources and education to help manage their credit health
and achieve their financial goals. Through these and other efforts, TransUnion
is working to build stronger economies worldwide. Founded in 1968 and
headquartered in Chicago, TransUnion employs associates in more than 25
countries on five continents. www.transunion.com/business

SOURCE TransUnion.com

Dave Blumberg of TransUnion, +1-312-985-3059, dblumbe@transunion.com