PricewaterhouseCoopers Forecasts Modest RevPAR Increase in 2010
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NEW YORK, June 1, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC)
today announced an updated U.S. lodging forecast that reflects the expected
resumption of growth in the U.S. economy in the second half of 2009. While
occupancy levels and average daily rates (ADR) in the second half of 2009 are
expected to remain below last year's levels, resulting in a 15.7 percent
decrease in room revenue per available room (RevPAR) in 2009,
PricewaterhouseCoopers expects that RevPAR will post modest growth in 2010.
PricewaterhouseCoopers' current lodging forecast reflects updated economic
outlooks. After consecutive, substantial declines in real gross domestic product
(GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009, the contraction
of GDP is expected to moderate in the second quarter and to resume growth in the
third quarter of 2009. By the second quarter of 2010, the U.S. economy is
forecast to grow at an above-trend growth rate.
According to PricewaterhouseCoopers' current lodging forecast, lodging demand in
the third and fourth quarters of 2009 is forecast to be 6.4 percent and 1.2
percent below last year's levels, respectively, resulting in an annual decrease
of 6.2 percent in 2009. The year-over-year comparison in the fourth quarter of
2009 reflects the one-year anniversary of the abrupt decline in lodging demand
in the fourth quarter of 2008. A deceleration of lodging supply growth is
expected to result in an annual lodging supply increase of 2.7 percent in 2009.
Despite slowing supply growth, this demand-supply imbalance is expected to
compress occupancy levels by 8.7 percent in 2009, resulting in an average annual
occupancy level of 55.1 percent. Furthermore, decreasing demand and reduced
pricing power, combined with a reduction in the share of lodging demand being
accommodated by hotels in the higher-priced chain scales, is forecast to reduce
ADR by 7.6 percent in 2009.
PricewaterhouseCoopers U.S. Lodging Forecast - 2009 and 2010
---------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
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Occupancy 63.3% 59.8% 59.1% 59.2% 61.4% 63.1% 63.3% 63.1%
ADR Growth 5.4% -1.4% -1.5% 0.2% 4.2% 5.5% 7.5% 6.2%
RevPAR Growth 6.1% -7.0% -2.7% 0.5% 7.9% 8.5% 7.8% 5.8%
---------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 2009 2010
--------------------
Occupancy 60.4% 55.1% 56.1%
ADR Growth 2.5% -7.6% -0.2%
RevPAR Growth -1.8% -15.7% 1.6%
-----------------------------------
Sources: Smith Travel Research and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
In 2010, as the U.S. economy grows at an above-trend rate, RevPAR is forecast to
increase by 1.6 percent. This gain will be driven primarily by a 1.8 percent
increase in occupancy, as increasing demand and slowing supply growth are
expected to increase the average annual occupancy level to 56.1 percent in 2010.
Despite increasing demand, hotels, particularly in higher-priced chain scales,
are expected to continue to face pricing pressures, resulting in a 0.2 percent
decrease in ADR.
"Though business and consumer spending is expected to remain cautious, the
anticipated transition of the U.S. economy from sharp contraction to modest
growth bodes well for a gradual recovery in the lodging sector, which timed with
a deceleration in the number of new hotel rooms entering the market, is expected
to support improved lodging performance in 2010," said Scott D. Berman,
principal and U.S. Industry Leader, Hospitality & Leisure, for
PricewaterhouseCoopers.
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance, tax
and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its clients
and their stakeholders. More than 155,000 people in 153 countries across our
network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop fresh
perspectives and practical advice.
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP or as the context
requires, the PricewaterhouseCoopers global network of other member firms of the
network, each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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CONTACT: Linden Alschuler & Kaplan
Suzanne Dawson
(212) 329-1420
sdawson@lakpr.com
PricewaterhouseCoopers
Kathryn Oliver
(860) 241-7333
kathryn.oliver@us.pwc.com
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