Russia's Opel stake seen swallowed up by state giant

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian Sberbank's, having acquired a 35 percent stake in Opel, is likely to pass it on to Russian Technologies, a sprawling and secretive industrial giant led by a close ally of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

This would be in line with a familiar Russian strategy of folding scattered assets -- in this case, stakes in various automotive groups -- into a tightly controlled state behemoth.

Analysts said that Opel would then feed modern European technology to the existing Russian car makers and give them access to western markets, but it would still be an uphill battle to boost operating efficiencies.

Sberbank agreed to acquire the stake last week in a deal to save Opel from the bankruptcy of its U.S. owner General Motors. The deal also gave Canada's Magna 20 percent of Opel and left GM with 35 percent.

Russia's business logic in the deal has remained a mystery, and investors in Sberbank have been fretting over how this stake would be managed by the Russian side, and in whose interests.

But on Thursday, the head of Sberbank, German Gref, said his bank would pass its 35 percent stake in Germany's Opel to a Russian strategic investor, though he did not name any candidates.

"The more likely strategy will be to transfer it to Russian Technologies," said Dmitry Dmitriev, analyst at VTB bank.

Headed by Putin's old friend Sergei Chemezov, Russian Technologies has been handed control of more than 400 firms, including key assets in the weapons industry, machine building, aviation and car production.

In its scope and influence, some analysts say it rivals the powerful oligarch groups who cobbled together vast resource empires during privatization.

Last week, two days before the Opel deal, Chemezov said that a decision had already been made to create a special holding for the automotive sector within his conglomerate.

Asked by the Vedomosti daily if it would take over assets held by state-run banks like Sberbank, he said, "We reached an agreement: if (the banks) end up with assets that would be part of our core operations, we can take them under our control."

MANAGEMENT QUESTIONED

The rapid expansion of Russian Technologies began to raise alarms last year when it swallowed up about a dozen local airlines bankrupt by the crisis, consolidating them under a new state aviation giant, Russian Airlines.

Most analysts expect a similar arrangement for the automotive sector but were skeptical about its prospects.

"My confidence in their ability to manage all these assets is pretty low, not much. There are just too many moving parts there already," said Kim Iskyan, director of Europe and Eurasia at the Eurasia Group consultancy in Washington.

In the interview with Vedomosti, Chemezov admitted that he could not name even two or three healthy businesses out of the hundreds in his conglomerate, and said about a third of them are on the verge of bankruptcy.

Russian Technologies' most important assets, he added, will be kept alive with state cash injections and loans, which the company has shown an unmatched ability to secure.

"But our automotive sector has serious problems, which you can't solve by throwing money at these firms," Dmitriev said.

In addition to the Opel stake, Russian technologies would be able to fold in its 25 percent of AvtoVAZ, Russia's largest car maker, and its 38 percent of Kamaz, the country's biggest truck maker.

On Thursday, Gref also said that GM's Chevrolet factories in St. Petersburg would be included in the Opel deal. GM's Chevrolet Lacetti was the most popular foreign car on the Russian market last year.

Russia's GAZ Group, which was included in the deal to save Opel as an "industrial partner," was initially pegged as the most likely manager for Sberbank's Opel stake.

But analysts said it has too many problems of its own.

It is currently in tough restructuring talks over its debt, which totals $1.5 billion, and could face bankruptcy or a firesale soon.

GAZ's owner, aluminum magnate Oleg Deripaska, has relegated his automotive assets to the sidelines of his empire.

Aside from GAZ's debt, his core holding, UC RUSAL is engaged in arduous restructuring talks over more than $7 billion in debt to 70 foreign banks.

"Deripaska has to focus right now on the markets where he has a dominant position. And with the state looking more seriously at controlling the car sector... Deripaska would be more likely to let GAZ go," said Sergei Udalov, deputy head of automotive consultancy AvtoStat.

(Editing by Sitaraman Shankar)