WRAPUP 1-Russia sees some economic rebound, more rate cuts

Fri Jun 5, 2009 4:34am EDT

* Recovery seen in some sectors, companies

* Economy will contract less than 6.5 pct IMF forecast

* Rates could be cut by another 100 basis points

* Oil output threatened by reduced foreign lending

(Combines comments from Russian officials)

By Toni Vorobyova and Dmitry Zhdannikov

ST PETERSBURG, Russia, June 5 (Reuters) - Russia's economy will contract by less than the 6.5 percent forecast by the International Monetary Fund as some sectors start to recover and capital outflows slow to around zero, officials said on Friday.

"We already have some signs of improvement but not across the board, just some companies and sectors," senior Kremlin economic aide Arkady Dvorkovich told Reuters financial television on the sidelines of the St Petersburg Economic Forum.

"We think it will be lower than 6.5 percent but probably not much lower," he said when asked about the GDP contraction.

Dvorkovich told Reuters that Russia could cut interest rates by another 100 basis points -- on top of the 150 basis points of cuts administered in the last six weeks -- should 2009 inflation stay below 10 percent.

Russia's central bank cut interest rates on Thursday for the third time in six weeks, bringing them down by 50 basis points to 11.50 percent to encourage banks to offer more affordable loans and help quell the country's first recession in a decade.

LOWER INFLATION

Alexei Ulyukayev, deputy chairman of the central bank, said inflation would be lower in June than last month and that capital outflows could reach around zero for the rest of 2009.

The central bank is considering revising down its 13 percent full-year inflation target in anticipation that consumer price growth -- a cumulative 6.8 percent so far in 2009 -- could fall to a monthly rate of zero or below.

Dvorkovich also said Russian capital outflows would be lower than the $70-80 billion initially expected, and that commercial banks' lending rates could come down by another two to three percentage points.

"Not every bank will survive this crisis but our major systemic banks will resolve their problems with government help. And with prudent policies," he said.

The recovery in oil prices CLc1 to almost $70 a barrel has underpinned the first signs of recovery in Russia's economy, and driven a recovery in its currency and stock markets.

Russia's key share .IRTS index rose 3.83 percent on Friday, led by commodity giants such as Norilsk Nickel and LUKOIL on the back of gains in oil and metals prices.

But the world's second-largest oil exporter may have to curtail production should Russian oil companies find it difficult to borrow money abroad, the country's senior energy official, Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, said on Friday. Sechin, a powerful deputy of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, said Russia was not happy with the current oil price and believes a fair level would be about $75 a barrel.

Sergei Bogdanchikov, chief executive of state-run oil leader Rosneft (ROSN.MM), said the positive financial dynamic of the first quarter would last for the rest of 2009, a year in which he forecasts oil prices averaging a maximum $55 a barrel. (Writing by Robin Paxton; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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