Colombia's Uribe popular but re-election uncertain

Colombia's President Alvaro Uribe gestures during a ceremony at an army school in Bogota June 3, 2009.

BOGOTA (Reuters) - Government agents spying on supreme court judges, soldiers executing civilians, an economy tumbling into recession -- recent Colombian headlines read like bad news for any president.

But apparently not for Alvaro Uribe.

Applauded for battling leftist rebels, Uribe has a Teflon-like talent for dodging scandal, and charges of espionage, army murders and weak growth will likely dent rather than damage his political armor as he mulls re-election.

Uribe is evasive about whether he will even seek another term in 2010. But supporters are promoting a referendum to allow Washington's key South American ally to run again -- a test for his enduring popularity after nearly two terms.

After driving back Marxist guerrillas and subduing a cocaine-fueled insurgency, Uribe counts on the goodwill of many Colombians who see him as the savior of a country that once teetered on the brink of becoming a failed state.

"We could see his popularity or approval rating slip, but I can't say it will to fall sharply," said Jorge Londono, pollster with Invamer-Gallup. "Something very odd would have to happen for President Uribe to be seen as unpopular."

Polls indicate his message of "Democratic Security" and investment still carries weight in a country where just a few years ago urban bombings and kidnappings were daily news.

A recent Invamer-Gallup poll showed his popularity at 68 percent. A poll with RCN TV this week showed 57 percent would vote for Uribe now; his nearest rival had just 6 percent.

Both polls found most Colombians would back his re-election if the popular conservative decided to run for a third term and his supporters secure a constitutional amendment to allow it.

Still, challenges are piling up. No evidence links Uribe directly to any scandals. But they are fueling doubts at home and in Washington, which supplies Colombia with hundreds of millions in counter-narcotics aid each year.

Four former directors of the top state spy agency, known as the DAS, are under investigation after prosecutors found agents illegally bugging judges, journalists and opposition figures.

A group of soldiers are on trial and more under investigation after prosecutors charged them with working with criminal gangs to murder civilians and count them as gunmen killed in combat to bump up their success rates.

Colombia's economy, like many in the region, is suffering in the global crisis with zero growth expected this year. Unemployment and the cost of living are problems where at least one poll found most Colombians disapprove of Uribe.

UNCERTAINTY OVER REFERENDUM

Uribe himself says he is at a "crossroads of the soul" over re-election and most experts believe he will keep his decision private until later in the year. He says re-election is inconvenient, but he has anointed no clear successor.

His supporters changed the constitution once before to allow his 2006 re-election, which he won by a landslide. But even some of his ardent backers have now broken away and worry he is putting democratic institutions at risk.

"There are growing numbers of Uribe supporters now against re-election," said Marcela Prieto at the Political Science Institute in Bogota.

Time maybe Uribe's fiercest opponent. He must by law register his candidacy by November and the clock is ticking.

Congress passed the referendum bill, but lawmakers disagree on whether the wording allows immediate re-election or only re-election in 2014. A commission must resolve that dispute, and talks could drag into late July or early August.

The constitutional court could then take three months to deliver its verdict on the referendum and electoral authorities say they need three months to organize a vote. The referendum could fall back to early 2010, months before May's election.

Other cases may stymie the proposal with more delays. The supreme court is probing whether lawmakers violated legislative procedure when they voted on the referendum. The top prosecutor is also investigating whether the re-election campaign received funds from a pyramid scam organizer charged with drug links.

"The biggest threat to his referendum is timing," said Patrick Estereulas at Eurasia Group risk consultancy. "The window of opportunity to organize a referendum to lift term limits and register his candidacy within the allotted deadlines is narrowing extremely quickly."

(Editing by Anthony Boadle)