UPDATE 2-Chile GDP to shrink 1 pct in 2009-Cenbank poll

Tue Jun 9, 2009 10:44am EDT

* Chile GDP seen shrinking 1.0 percent in 2009

* Economy seen contracting 3.0 percent in 2nd qtr

* New 50 basis-point central bank rate cut seen this month (Updates with analyst comment)

SANTIAGO, June 9 (Reuters) - Chile's economy will likely contract 3 percent in the second quarter, formally entering recession, and shrink by 1.0 percent in 2009, a new central bank poll of financial analysts showed on Tuesday.

Financial analysts polled by the central bank deepened their estimate from a forecast for a 0.7 percent full-year contraction predicted last month.

They also expect the central bank to cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points next week to a new record low of 0.75 percent. The bank has led the charge by Latin American central banks to cut rates this year, slashing its target overnight lending rate by 700 basis points year-to-date.

The analysts forecast that 12-month inflation would also fall sharply to 0.2 percent in the 12 months through December from 3.0 percent in the 12 months through May.

"We are of the view that inflation will remain low for a prolonged period of time, and so will the policy rate," Goldman Sachs analyst Alberto Ramos said in a research note.

"We expect the central bank to drive its policy rate down to 0.5 percent-0.75 percent over the coming months," he added. "The central bank is likely, possibly at the next meeting, to state explicitly its commitment to keeping the policy rate low for a prolonged period of time, which is still not fully priced in the nominal yield curve."

Central Bank President Jose De Gregorio said in Manila on Monday there could be another rate cut on the way and that inflation was likely to continue to decelerate. He hedged his comments by noting that while the bias was toward potential loosening, the bank could not make a general rule.

Chile's economy contracted 2.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier. According to government methodology, the economy will enter recession after two successive year-on-year quarterly contractions if the analysts' second quarter outlook is confirmed.

However analysts say that by the standards of many developed countries, Chile is already in recession.

The central bank this month slashed its own 2009 GDP forecast to a range between a 0.75 percent contraction and a 0.25 percent expansion.

Chile's slumping economy in April contracted at its fastest annual rate in a decade and consumer prices fell for the second straight month, weighed down by global financial crisis, official data showed last week, reinforcing expectations for a new central bank rate cut. (Reporting by Rodrigo Martinez; Writing by Simon Gardner; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)

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