EMERGING MARKETS-LatAm currencies mixed on US dollar, data

Tue Jun 9, 2009 3:21pm EDT

 * Brazil's real up on better-than-expected GDP data
 * Mexico's peso down on IMF warnings
 * Venezuela bond spreads narrow on nationalization halt
 By Manuela Badawy
 NEW YORK, June 9 (Reuters) - Latin American currencies were
mixed on U.S. dollar weakness and local economic data on
Tuesday, while stocks and bonds zig-zagged, awaiting direction
from U.S. markets.
 The U.S. dollar fell broadly, ending a two-day winning
streak, as investors questioned whether the U.S. economy had
improved enough to justify talk of higher U.S. interest rates
by year end.
 Investors were growing less certain that the Federal
Reserve would raise rates in 2009, a view that gained traction
last week after data showing a slower pace of U.S. job losses
in May boosted the dollar and Treasury yields.
 The drop in the U.S. dollar boosted the value of several
Latin American currencies which were already appreciating due
to strong economic data.
 Brazil's currency rose supported by data showing
better-than-expected economic performance in the first quarter
of the year.
 Brazil's GDP contracted 0.8 percent in the first quarter of
2009 from the previous quarter BRGDP=ECI underpinned by
domestic consumption and government spending that helped
cushion the impact of the global downturn.
 The realBRBY rose 1.6 percent to 1.935 per dollar.
 "The stronger Q1 number should add some momentum to the
view that the second quarter recovery could be stronger than
expected and growth may not be as bad for the whole year," said
Paulo Biszko, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC Capital
Markets in Toronto.
 Mexico's currency meanwhile, dropped more than 1 percent to
13.55 per dollar a day after the IMF warned that emerging
economies, including Mexico, could face balance of payments
troubles due to large external funding needs.
 The sharp fall in the value of the peso against the dollar
MXN=MEX01 could fuel inflation by pushing up the price of
imported goods. The peso plunged last year as investors dumped
emerging market assets, briefly pushing the currency over 15 to
the dollar.
 Colombia's peso COP=RR appreciated 1.75 percent to
2,055.8 per dollar while commodity prices advanced in
international markets, with oil gaining 2.73 percent above $70
a barrel.
 Regional stocks rose 1 percent on the MSCI Latin American
stock index .MILA00000PUS  but Brazil's Bovespa .BVSP index
fell 1.11 percent as the better-than-expected GDP numbers
suggested the central bank might not cut interest rates as
previously forecast.
  The central bank will start a two-day monetary policy
meeting on Tuesday, and is expected to lower the Selic rate by
a median 0.75 points on Wednesday, according to a Reuters poll.
The Selic is at a record low of 10.25 percent.
 Meanwhile, Venezuela's sovereign bond spreads tightened 36
basis points to 1,119 basis points over U.S. Treasuries, to
gain 1.75 percent in total returns on the day, according to JP
Morgan's (EMBI+) 11EMJ.JPMEMBIPLUS on news the government
will not nationalize all the oil service companies.
[nN09391719]
 Overall spreads narrowed 4 basis points to 412 basis points
over Treasuries.
 (Additional reporting by Elzio Barreto in Brazil)






































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