Gates says Afghan gains key to U.S. public support

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration's strategy for Afghanistan needs to show progress over the next year or so to ensure continued U.S. public support for the war effort, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Tuesday.

"It's very important for us to be able to show the American people that we are moving forward by the end of the year or a year from now," Gates said in testimony before a Senate panel on defense appropriations.

"The American people will be willing to sustain this endeavor if they believe it's not just a stalemate."

Gates spoke as thousands of new U.S. forces poured into Afghanistan as part of a troop build-up ordered by President Barack Obama to quell the worst violence the country has seen since the 2001 U.S.-led invasion.

Analysts say American public support for the war could become an issue in coming months, with U.S. casualties in Afghanistan expected to rise as a result of a counterinsurgency drive to eliminate insurgent strongholds, especially in the south.

Public support for the war also could have political implications as members of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives seek votes in next year's mid-term elections.

A recent survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press showed about 53 percent of Americans in favor of Obama's troop increase. But the data also suggested support was strongest among Republicans, with about 43 percent of Democrats opposed to greater American involvement.

"The strategy needs to show some signs that it's working, not that it has been totally successful, a year to 18 months from now," said Gates, who appeared at a Senate hearing with Navy Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Mullen concurred with Gates, saying: "The next 12-to-18 months will really tell the tale."

The United States now has 56,000 troops in Afghanistan, up sharply from 32,000 at the end of 2008. Pentagon officials expect that number to rise to 68,000 by the start of 2010.

Gates blamed a rise in Afghan violence that began in 2006 on peace deals between Pakistan and militants across the Afghan border in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Those deals, he said, took military pressure off the Taliban and other groups and allowed more fighters to cross the border into Afghanistan.

But the U.S. defense chief expressed optimism about the Pakistan military's recent efforts to drive militants from the Swat Valley in the North West Frontier Province.

"The newest development of the Pakistani army taking on these extremists in Swat and elsewhere, I think, is an extremely important development. And the possibility of the Afghans, the Pakistanis, ourselves and our allies together working against this problem has given me more optimism about the future than I've had in a long time," he said.

(Editing by Chris Wilson)