Research and Markets: 2Q09 Morocco Mobile Operator Forecast, Reveals Total Subscribers to Reach 34.62 Million in 2013

DUBLIN--(Business Wire)--
Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/8a3da7/2q09_morocco_mobil) has
announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "2Q09 Morocco
Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 - 2013" to their offering.

Total wireless subscribers in Morocco to reach 34.62 million in 2013 with Medi
Tel and Wana taking market share away from Maroc Telecom over the next five
years

Mobile Operator Forecast on Morocco provides over 65 operational and financial
metrics for Morocco's wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the
industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013.
We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and
ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Morocco include: Maroc Telecom, Medi
Tel, and Wana. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are
available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+
mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Our
forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models.
These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that
estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment
data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country;
and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

So what is our forecast?

* Total subscribers to reach 34.62 million in 2013
* We forecast that total subscribers in Morocco will increase from 24.95 million
in 2008 to 34.62 million in 2013.
* All operators will see their numbers of subscribers increase over the next
five years.
* We expect that Maroc Telecom will continue to be the largest wireless carrier
in Morocco over the next five years with 19.41 million subscribers in 2013.
* Our model also forecasts that Medi Tel will remain in the second place with
11.40 million suscribers in 2013 while Wana finishes third with 3.81 million in
2013.

Maroc Telecom will lose subscriber market share to Medi Tel and Wana over the
next five years

* Maroc Telecom will maintain its position as the biggest mobile operator in
Morocco over the next several years. However, we expect that Maroc Telecom will
be losing its market share to Medi Tel and Wana over the forecast period. Our
model predicts that Maroc Telecom's subscriber market share will decline from
57.9% in 2008 to 56.1% in 2013.
* On the other hand, we expect that Medi Tel's subscriber market share will
increase from 31.8% to 32.9%, and Wana's share will increase from 10.3% to 11.0%
over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

ARPU levels will continue to decline from 2009 to 2013

* We expect that all operators will see an overall decrease in their ARPUs over
the next five years.
* Maroc Telecom will continue to lead Morocco in ARPU, but our model predicts
that its ARPU will still decline from MAD 100.03 in 2008 to MAD 92.98 in 2013.
* On the other hand, we forecast that Medi Tel's monthly ARPU level will decline
from MAD 64.02 in 2008 to MAD 55.11 in 2013.

Industry EBITDA margin will deteriorate over the next several years

* We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as
EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 59.7% in 2008 to 55.0% in 2013. Our
model predicts that Maroc Telecom's EBITDA margin will decrease from 64.2% in
2008 to 58.2% in 2013
* Nevertheless, our model predicts that Medi Tel's EBITDA margin will improve
slightly from 43.6% in 2008 to 44.0% 2013.

Companies Mentioned:

* Maroc Telecom
* Medi Tel

For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/8a3da7/2q09_morocco_mobil

Research and Markets
Laura Wood
Senior Manager
press@researchandmarkets.com
Fax from USA: 646-607-1907
Fax from rest of the world: +353-1-481-1716

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