FACTBOX-Key issues for investors in Russia

Wed Jun 10, 2009 10:20am EDT

(repeats story first transmitted on June 9)

June 9 (Reuters) - Following are five key issues for investors in Russia:

THE OIL PRICE

Russia's economy is so heavily dependent on oil exports that the stock market has moved broadly in line with the price of crude during last year's slump and this year's recovery.

Last year's 75 percent collapse in the Brent oil price during the second half was the main driver for a 72 percent fall in Russia's RTS index .IRTS over the same period; this year, the index has approximately doubled from its lows.

The rouble's fortunes are also intimately tied to oil, because energy exports provide the bulk of Russia's foreign currency earnings. After a controlled devaluation against the dollar at the end of 2008 and the start of 2009, the rouble RUB= has recovered on the back of higher oil.

It was trading at 31.15/31.16 to the dollar on Tuesday, up from around 35-36 in late January and February.

The government's budget for 2009 was initially worked out at an estimated oil price of $95 per barrel, then reworked to reflect a price of $41. At current levels over $60, the maths are fairly comfortable for the Russian government, but a substantial fall in the crude price could change all that.

POLITICAL INSTABILITY

Although relations between President Dmitry Medvedev and his patron, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, are generally believed to be good, frictions have emerged between members of their teams.

If the economic crisis worsens in Russia, there is a risk that tensions between the two key men in the country's ruling "tandem" will worsen, with unpredictable consequences. Any serious conflict between them could tear the government apart.

Putin is the dominant member of the tandem and has retained his high popularity with voters despite the crisis, so any sign that his position was weakening, or any indication that he might leave his post, would unsettle the country.

Medvedev, despite indications that he favours slow, cautious reform of politics and the judiciary, has so far had little impact. Most of the key posts in the Kremlin administration and the cabinet are held by longtime Putin loyalists.

If Medvedev started making a lot of his own appointments within the Kremlin, that would mark a major shift in the balance of power and could herald major policy changes. So far, this has not happened.

ONE-COMPANY TOWNS

The Soviet industrial model of grouping an entire population around a single large plant, mine or smelter means that Russia has around 460 one-company towns containing a total of 25 million people.

These have been hit especially hard by the crisis because the factories on which they depend have almost universally cut production, wages and jobs; people affected have nowhere else to turn for work.

The government has targeted aid at these towns and is watching carefully for signs of unrest. Most analysts expect that if there are any large-scale protests, they will begin in one of the towns rather than in Moscow or St Petersburg.

Putin swooped last week on the town of Pikalyovo in the Leningrad district to denounce factory owners -- including top oligarch Oleg Deripaska -- for failing to pay staff and idling production. Workers had blocked a highway in protest.

Analysts said the televised intervention was popular with voters but risked triggering a rash of copycat actions across the country by workers hoping to catch Putin's attention.

OLIGARCH DEBT

Some of Russia's richest businessmen borrowed over $500 billion from foreign banks in the boom years under Putin and are now asking creditors to restructure their debt because they cannot easily refinance loans and their profits have crashed.

The state has spent about $11 billion to refinance the foreign debts of Russian corporates, but Putin's deputies have said the state will not pay any more foreign debt for the "oligarchs".

Many bankers and officials say privately that the state will effectively have to nationalise some of the oligarchs' assets to prevent tens of thousands of workers from losing their jobs.

Western creditors will not be allowed to take control of so-called "strategic" Russian companies, particularly in energy, and Russia's bankruptcy laws strongly favour debtors, so Western creditors have few options other than to agree to standstill periods and generous rescheduling.

They are trying to lobby the Russian government to inject money into the largest indebted companies by allowing state banks to take equity stakes, freeing up cash with which to pay foreign creditors.

REGIONAL CONFLICTS

Last year's brief war between Russia and Georgia hammered confidence in Russian assets, and another flare-up could swiftly change the economic and political landscape. During the war with Georgia, some analysts said hardliners were gaining the upper hand in Moscow as Russian troops pushed into Georgia.

Russia has still not pulled all its troops back to pre-conflict positions, as stipulated in a ceasefire deal, and the situation on the ground remains tense.

Russia's relations with Ukraine are being closely watched by diplomats after a row over gas contracts at the start of the year, when supplies to European consumers were cut off for nearly two weeks.

Tension is also rising with Moscow's longtime close ally Belarus. Angered by Russia's higher gas prices and reductions in oil concessions, President Alexander Lukashenko has moved closer to the West, prompting a harsh reaction from Moscow.

Inside Russia, low-level conflict continues in the mainly Muslim North Caucasus republics of Dagestan, Ingushetia and Chechnya.

For a story on the impact of the credit crisis on Russian politics and economic reforms, click [ID:nLL91029044])

(Reporting by Michael Stott and Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Andrew Torchia)

Comments (0)
This discussion is now closed. We welcome comments on our articles for a limited period after their publication.